Toby Samuel vs Yosuke WatanukiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Toby Samuel and Yosuke Watanuki have met 1 time since 2026; Toby Samuel leads 1–0. Across all meetings Samuel has taken 2 sets to Watanuki's 0. Their most recent meeting: Toby Samuel won at Winnipeg Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Samuel | Watanuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Toby Samuel | Yosuke Watanuki | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 64/74 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 7/14 | 42% | 5/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 19% | 17/88 | 36% | 9/25 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 75% | 52/69 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 78% | 7/9 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 77% | 17/22 | 67% | 4/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 67/71 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 90% | 64/71 | 60% | 9/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Samuel 1, Watanuki 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Samuel
🪃 Counterpuncher
Watanuki
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 23, 2026
Winnipeg Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Samuel | Watanuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Toby Samuel | Yosuke Watanuki | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 94% | 16/17 | 75% | 6/8 |
| 5 or more | 65% | 11/17 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Samuel | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–4 | 4–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.88 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | +21.5% | -19.8% |
| Units P/L | +2.79u | -1.58u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 3 shared opponents, both Samuel and Watanuki posted a 33% win rate.
| Opponent | Samuel | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| August Holmgren | W 63 63 | L 76 46 57 |
| Arthur Nagel | L 46 57 | W 64 62 |
| Mitchell Krueger | L 46 46 | L 63 26 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jay Dylan Hara Friend
Vancouver Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Jack Pinnington Jones
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 29
Liam Draxl
Winnipeg Challenger · Final
Jul 26
Charles Broom
Winnipeg Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 25
Yu Hsiou Hsu
Winnipeg Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Yosuke Watanuki
Winnipeg Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Mikael Arseneault
Winnipeg Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Jakub Mensik
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Hayato Matsuoka
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 29
Toby Samuel
Winnipeg Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Andre Ilagan
Winnipeg Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 20
August Holmgren
Granby Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 14
Jack Kennedy
Cary Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 3
Tung-Lin Wu
Cary Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Andre Ilagan
Cary Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 29
Vitaliy Sachko
Bratislava Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 8
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 25–90 matches
| Metric | Samuel | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 52% |
| Sets won | 78% | 53% |
| Games won | 61% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Samuel | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Samuel | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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