Toby Samuel vs Yosuke WatanukiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Toby Samuel and Yosuke Watanuki have met 1 time since 2026; Toby Samuel leads 1–0. Across all meetings Samuel has taken 2 sets to Watanuki's 0. Their most recent meeting: Toby Samuel won at Winnipeg Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Samuel | Watanuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Toby Samuel | Yosuke Watanuki | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 83% | 52/63 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 8/17 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 24% | 19/80 | 36% | 9/25 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 67% | 42/63 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 80% | 8/10 | 29% | 2/7 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 75% | 15/20 | 71% | 5/7 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 55/60 | 69% | 11/16 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 87% | 52/60 | 63% | 10/16 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Samuel 1, Watanuki 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Samuel
🪃 Counterpuncher
Watanuki
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 23, 2026
Winnipeg Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Samuel | Watanuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Toby Samuel | Yosuke Watanuki | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 7/15 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Samuel | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–3 | 3–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.68 | 1.77 |
| ROI % | +26.8% | -39.4% |
| Units P/L | +3.75u | -2.76u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Samuel | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | POR | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 4 shared opponents, both Samuel and Watanuki posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Samuel | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| Semen Pankin | W 62 61 | W 61 60 |
| August Holmgren | W 63 63 | L 76 46 57 |
| Arthur Nagel | L 46 57 | W 64 62 |
| Mitchell Krueger | L 46 46 | L 63 26 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Hynek Barton
Villena Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Jerome Kym
Porto Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Mackenzie McDonald
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Andy Andrade
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, GBR-ECU · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Tomas Machac
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Cristian Garin
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 27
Billy Harris
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Semen Pankin
Jinan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Marat Sharipov
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Chun-Hsin Tseng
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Semen Pankin
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 31
Hayato Matsuoka
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 29
Toby Samuel
Winnipeg Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Andre Ilagan
Winnipeg Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 20
August Holmgren
Granby Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 14
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 25–84 matches
| Metric | Samuel | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 76% | 56% |
| Sets won | 72% | 56% |
| Games won | 59% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Samuel | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Samuel | Watanuki |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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