Pavel Kotov vs Shintaro MochizukiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Guangzhou Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- September 14 · 4:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.74 or shorter, Shintaro Mochizuki has won 56 of 94 (60%). That is level with the 61% the price implied.
At 1.97 or longer, Pavel Kotov has won 44 of 107 (41%). That is level with the 40% the price implied.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Pavel Kotov meets Shintaro Mochizuki in the 1st Round of the Guangzhou Challenger on hard court September 15. Kotov, ranked 221, carries a 75% win rate on hard surfaces in recent play but has won only three of his last ten matches overall. Mochizuki sits at 126 and comes off a two-match losing streak after limited play in recent weeks.
The two have never faced each other. Kotov has been active, playing four matches in two weeks, though he dropped his most recent outing. Mochizuki has won four of ten in his last stretch and played just once in the past fortnight. Both players beat Gauthier Onclin and Keegan Smith; Mochizuki defeated Mackenzie McDonald while Kotov lost to him.
Kotov operates as a serve-heavy player and thrives on hard courts, where his first-strike tennis produces results. Mochizuki counters with reactive baseline play that relies on timing and angles rather than pace. Kotov's recent form is choppy despite his surface credentials, while Mochizuki faces pressure to shake his current slide. Kotov's activity and hard-court record will test Mochizuki's ability to neutralize pace and construct points from the baseline.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kotov | Mochizuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pavel Kotov | Shintaro Mochizuki | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 16/28 | 63% | 12/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 6/11 | 48% | 16/33 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 18/39 | 44% | 23/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 12/27 | 32% | 8/25 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 80% | 8/10 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 76% | 13/17 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 21/24 | 76% | 16/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 16/24 | 57% | 12/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kotov
🤖 Servebot
Mochizuki
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,258 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Pavel Kotov.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Kotov and Mochizuki have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kotov | Mochizuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Pavel Kotov | Shintaro Mochizuki | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 5/5 | 88% | 15/17 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 5/5 | 47% | 8/17 |
| 5 or more | 60% | 3/5 | 24% | 4/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/5 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/5 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/5 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kotov | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–2 | 9–9 |
| Avg odds | 1.88 | 3.00 |
| ROI % | +5.2% | -15.3% |
| Units P/L | +0.26u | -2.76u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kotov | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 444 mi · 714 km |
| Route | CHN | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Mochizuki has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Kotov's 33%).
| Opponent | Kotov | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Remy Bertola | L 67 57 | L 36 46 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | L 57 26 | W 76 75 |
| Keegan Smith | W 64 64 | W 36 63 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Marat Sharipov
Shanghai Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 12
Alexis Galarneau
Shanghai Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Jake Delaney
Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Elias Ymer
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Daniel Elahi Galan
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Leo Raquillet
Royan Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Franco Ribero
Royan Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 16
Marco Trungelliti
Lyon Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 9
Jakub Mensik
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Francesco Passaro
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Braden Shick
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Daniel Milavsky
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Soon Woo Kwon
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
J.J. Wolf
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Dane Sweeny
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 1
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–57 matches
| Metric | Kotov | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | 37% |
| Sets won | 65% | 43% |
| Games won | 54% | 47% |