Pablo Carreno Busta vs Yi ZhouPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- China Open - Beijing
- Level
- ATP 500
- Round
- 1st Round Qualifying
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- September 28 · 2:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 3.96 or longer, Yi Zhou has won 1 of 11 (9%). The price implied 17%, so Yi Zhou has fallen 8 points short of it.
At 1.22 or shorter, Pablo Carreno Busta has won 56 of 65 (86%). The price implied 82%, so Pablo Carreno Busta has beaten it by 4 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Pablo Carreno Busta and Yi Zhou meet next at the China Open - Beijing on September 28 on hard.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carreno Busta | Zhou | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pablo Carreno Busta | Yi Zhou | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 19/35 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 8/17 | 46% | 12/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 24/52 | 33% | 18/54 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 44% | 14/32 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 11/19 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 10/16 | 50% | 13/26 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 26/30 | 76% | 25/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 19/30 | 67% | 22/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Zhou
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 928 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Busta and Zhou have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Busta | Zhou | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Pablo Carreno Busta | Yi Zhou | ||
| 1 or more | 80% | 8/10 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 5/10 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 5 or more | 20% | 2/10 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 23% | 3/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Zhou |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–6 | 6–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.51 | 1.67 |
| ROI % | -9.3% | -38.2% |
| Units P/L | -0.93u | -4.97u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Busta | Zhou |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 4 |
| Matches | 1 | 5 |
| Distance | 6,828 mi · 10,989 km | 2,049 mi · 3,298 km |
| Route | USA → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (83% vs Zhou's 0%).
| Opponent | Busta | Zhou |
|---|---|---|
| Luka Pavlovic | W 36 61 62 | L 46 67 |
| Matej Dodig | W 64 62 | L 61 36 57 |
| Billy Harris | W 75 63 | L 61 67 26 36 |
| Dali Blanch | W 62 46 63 | L 76 57 06 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | L 26 16 | L 64 46 36 |
| Arthur Cazaux | W | L 46 63 06 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Ilya Ivashka
Shanghai Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Jie Cui
Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Sergey Fomin
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Ilya Ivashka
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Daniel Milavsky
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 29
Luka Pavlovic
Segovia Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Michael Geerts
Segovia Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 20
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–58 matches
| Metric | Busta | Zhou |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 51% |
| Sets won | 59% | 53% |
| Games won | 53% | 51% |