Pablo Carreno Busta vs Rafael JodarPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Pablo Carreno Busta and Rafael Jodar have met 2 times since 2026; Rafael Jodar leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2026 on clay. Jodar has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Busta has taken 4 sets to Jodar's 6. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Jodar won at Wimbledon - London (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carreno Busta | Jodar | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pablo Carreno Busta | Rafael Jodar | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 23/40 | 79% | 41/52 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 10/20 | 25% | 4/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 27/60 | 22% | 15/68 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 18/38 | 64% | 35/55 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 12/21 | 55% | 6/11 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 10/16 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 31/35 | 96% | 47/49 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 66% | 23/35 | 84% | 41/49 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Jodar
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 657 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Pablo Carreno Busta.
Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jul 2, 2026
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
May 31, 2026
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 4th Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Busta | Jodar | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Pablo Carreno Busta | Rafael Jodar | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 7/8 | 94% | 16/17 |
| 3 or more | 63% | 5/8 | 71% | 12/17 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 2/8 | 47% | 8/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 12% | 2/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | 11–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.29 | 1.67 |
| ROI % | +0.8% | +2.3% |
| Units P/L | +0.07u | +0.37u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Busta | Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 3 | 9 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Jodar has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Busta's 50%).
| Opponent | Busta | Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Tabilo | L 26 16 | W 62 61 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 63 76 | W 75 46 75 |
| Tomas Machac | W 63 62 | W 64 46 63 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 63 76 63 | W 63 63 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | L 63 57 57 | W 63 63 |
| Felix Gill | W 46 63 62 | W 63 63 75 |
| Martin Damm | W 63 63 | W 63 76 |
| Vit Kopriva | L 36 61 46 | W 75 60 |
| Dusan Lajovic | L 46 63 36 | W 63 64 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 57 64 62 67 36 | L 26 46 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Alejandro Tabilo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Denis Shapovalov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Brandon Nakashima
National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals
Aug 13
Jiri Lehecka
National Bank Open - Montreal · 4th Round
Aug 9
Lorenzo Musetti
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Corentin Moutet
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Taylor Fritz
Citi Open - Washington · Final
Aug 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 65–81 matches
| Metric | Busta | Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 75% |
| Sets won | 60% | 67% |
| Games won | 53% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Busta | Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Busta | Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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