Naoki Nakagawa vs Ryuki MatsudaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Naoki Nakagawa and Ryuki Matsuda have met 2 times since 2026; Naoki Nakagawa leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at M15 Nishi-Tokyo 1 in 2026 on hard. On hard courts Nakagawa leads 2–0. Nakagawa has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Nakagawa leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Nakagawa has taken 4 sets to Matsuda's 0. Their most recent meeting: Naoki Nakagawa won at M25 Urayasu (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakagawa | Matsuda | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Naoki Nakagawa | Ryuki Matsuda | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 13/19 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 29% | 4/14 | 28% | 10/36 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 10/33 | 27% | 19/70 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 11/21 | 54% | 14/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 9/12 | 55% | 21/38 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 4/8 | 29% | 5/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 16/18 | 90% | 27/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 13/18 | 83% | 25/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakagawa 2, Matsuda 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakagawa
💥 Big Hitter
Matsuda
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Sep 6, 2026
M25 Urayasu
H Hard · Final
Mar 17, 2026
M15 Nishi-Tokyo 1
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakagawa | Matsuda | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Naoki Nakagawa | Ryuki Matsuda | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 96% | 26/27 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 52% | 14/27 |
| 5 or more | 75% | 6/8 | 22% | 6/27 |
| 10 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 0% | 0/27 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/27 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/27 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakagawa | Matsuda |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–2 | 17–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.93 | 2.32 |
| ROI % | +9.3% | +54.0% |
| Units P/L | +0.74u | +13.51u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 6 shared opponents, both Nakagawa and Matsuda posted a 33% win rate.
| Opponent | Nakagawa | Matsuda |
|---|---|---|
| Yuta Kikuchi | L 36 62 46 | L 26 36 |
| Sanhui Shin | W 64 64 | W |
| Koki Matsuda | L 67 26 | L 26 67 |
| Colin Sinclair | W 76 46 64 | W 46 64 60 |
| Takuya Kumasaka | L 57 57 | L 16 06 |
| Yusuke Takahashi | L 46 46 | L 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ryuki Matsuda
M25 Urayasu · Final
Sep 6
Kuan-Yi Lee
M25 Urayasu · Semifinals
Sep 5
Ryota Tanuma
M25 Urayasu · Quarterfinals
Sep 4
Naoya Honda
M25 Urayasu · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Yua Taka
M25 Urayasu · 1st Round
Sep 2
Max Sheldon
M25 East Lansing · 2nd Round
Aug 13
Cooper Woestendick
M25 East Lansing · 1st Round
Aug 12
Clement Chidekh
M25 Southaven · 1st Round
Aug 5
Yuta Kikuchi
Wuning 3 Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Sergey Betov
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 4
Nino Ehrenschneider
M15 Luan · Semifinals
Oct 3
Kosuke Ogura
M15 Luan · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Reiya Komagata
M15 Luan · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Zichen Shao
M15 Luan · 1st Round
Sep 29
Moise Kouame
Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Taiyo Yamanaka
Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 33–70 matches
| Metric | Nakagawa | Matsuda |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 49% |
| Sets won | 55% | 49% |
| Games won | 53% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakagawa | Matsuda |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ITF M25 | 1 | 0 |
| ITF M15 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakagawa | Matsuda |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
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