Naoki Nakagawa vs Ryota TanumaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Naoki Nakagawa and Ryota Tanuma have met 2 times since 2022; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Matsuyama in 2022 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Nakagawa has taken 2 sets to Tanuma's 2. Their most recent meeting: Ryota Tanuma won at M15 Tokyo (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakagawa | Tanuma | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Naoki Nakagawa | Ryota Tanuma | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 14/19 | 75% | 9/12 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 6/17 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 11/36 | 37% | 10/27 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 12/23 | 27% | 4/15 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 77% | 10/13 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 43% | 3/7 | 0% | 0/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 80% | 16/20 | 85% | 11/13 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 14/20 | 69% | 9/13 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakagawa 1, Tanuma 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakagawa
🤖 Servebot
Tanuma
🛡️ The Spoiler
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 58% vs 🛡️ The Spoiler across 321 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Naoki Nakagawa.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the the spoiler's strong court coverage.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jul 1, 2026
M15 Tokyo
H Hard · 1st Round
Nov 6, 2022
Matsuyama
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakagawa | Tanuma | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Naoki Nakagawa | Ryota Tanuma | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 100% | 5/5 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 60% | 3/5 |
| 5 or more | 83% | 10/12 | 40% | 2/5 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 4/12 | 0% | 0/5 |
| 15 or more | 8% | 1/12 | 0% | 0/5 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/5 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakagawa | Tanuma |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–6 | 6–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.15 | 1.93 |
| ROI % | -4.4% | -15.6% |
| Units P/L | -0.53u | -1.71u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakagawa | Tanuma |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 3 | 1 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | USA | TPE |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakagawa has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Tanuma's 0%).
| Opponent | Nakagawa | Tanuma |
|---|---|---|
| Taketo Takamisawa | L 36 57 | L 57 46 |
| Hikaru Shiraishi | W 63 61 | L 36 62 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Max Sheldon
M25 East Lansing · 2nd Round
Aug 13
Cooper Woestendick
M25 East Lansing · 1st Round
Aug 12
Clement Chidekh
M25 Southaven · 1st Round
Aug 5
Koki Matsuda
M15 Tokyo · Semifinals
Jul 11
Shintaro Imai
M15 Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Naoya Honda
M15 Tokyo · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Sanhui Shin
M15 Tokyo · 1st Round
Jul 8
Ryota Tanuma
M15 Tokyo · 1st Round
Jul 1
Kai-I Wang
M25 Taipei · 1st Round
Aug 25
Yuki Mochizuki
M15 Tokyo · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Shion Yamada
M15 Tokyo · 1st Round
Jul 8
Shion Yamada
Futures 2026
Jul 8
Kazuma Kawachi
Futures 2026
Jul 7
Jonathan Irwanto
Futures 2026
Jul 6
Maximus Jones
M15 Tokyo · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Naoki Nakagawa
M15 Tokyo · 1st Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 27–36 matches
| Metric | Nakagawa | Tanuma |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 53% | 44% |
| Sets won | 53% | 48% |
| Games won | 52% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakagawa | Tanuma |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M15 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakagawa | Tanuma |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
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