Naoki Nakagawa vs Ryota TanumaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Naoki Nakagawa and Ryota Tanuma have met 3 times since 2022; Naoki Nakagawa leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Matsuyama in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Nakagawa leads 2–1. Across all meetings Nakagawa has taken 4 sets to Tanuma's 2. Their most recent meeting: Naoki Nakagawa won at M25 Urayasu (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakagawa | Tanuma | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Naoki Nakagawa | Ryota Tanuma | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 13/19 | 76% | 16/21 |
| Wins a set when losing | 29% | 4/14 | 47% | 8/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 10/33 | 34% | 13/38 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 11/21 | 33% | 7/21 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 9/12 | 80% | 8/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 4/8 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 16/18 | 90% | 19/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 13/18 | 76% | 16/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakagawa 2, Tanuma 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakagawa
💥 Big Hitter
Tanuma
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 1,349 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Naoki Nakagawa.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 4, 2026
M25 Urayasu
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jul 1, 2026
M15 Tokyo
H Hard · 1st Round
Nov 6, 2022
Matsuyama
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakagawa | Tanuma | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Naoki Nakagawa | Ryota Tanuma | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 44% | 4/9 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 22% | 2/9 |
| 5 or more | 75% | 6/8 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 10 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakagawa | Tanuma |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–2 | 4–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.93 | 2.14 |
| ROI % | +9.3% | +5.0% |
| Units P/L | +0.74u | +0.40u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nakagawa has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Tanuma's 33%).
| Opponent | Nakagawa | Tanuma |
|---|---|---|
| Naoya Honda | W 61 61 | W 46 76 62 |
| Renta Tokuda | W | L 36 26 |
| Taketo Takamisawa | L 36 57 | L 57 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ryuki Matsuda
M25 Urayasu · Final
Sep 6
Kuan-Yi Lee
M25 Urayasu · Semifinals
Sep 5
Ryota Tanuma
M25 Urayasu · Quarterfinals
Sep 4
Naoya Honda
M25 Urayasu · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Yua Taka
M25 Urayasu · 1st Round
Sep 2
Max Sheldon
M25 East Lansing · 2nd Round
Aug 13
Cooper Woestendick
M25 East Lansing · 1st Round
Aug 12
Clement Chidekh
M25 Southaven · 1st Round
Aug 5
Jerry Roddick
M25 Sapporo · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Naoya Honda
M25 Sapporo · 1st Round
Sep 9
Mao Takada
M25 Sapporo · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 7
Choma Masuda
M25 Sapporo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 6
Naoki Nakagawa
M25 Urayasu · Quarterfinals
Sep 4
Hikaru Shiraishi
M25 Urayasu · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Yuta Kawahashi
M25 Urayasu · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sena Sasaki
M25 Urayasu · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 33–38 matches
| Metric | Nakagawa | Tanuma |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 55% |
| Sets won | 55% | 56% |
| Games won | 53% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakagawa | Tanuma |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M25 | 1 | 0 |
| ITF M15 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakagawa | Tanuma |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
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