Naoki Nakagawa vs Naoya HondaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Naoki Nakagawa and Naoya Honda have met 2 times since 2026; Naoki Nakagawa leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at M15 Tokyo in 2026 on hard. On hard courts Nakagawa leads 2–0. Nakagawa has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Nakagawa has taken 4 sets to Honda's 1. Their most recent meeting: Naoki Nakagawa won at M25 Urayasu (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakagawa | Honda | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Naoki Nakagawa | Naoya Honda | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 13/19 | 82% | 28/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 29% | 4/14 | 39% | 11/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 10/33 | 27% | 17/62 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 11/21 | 48% | 16/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 9/12 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 4/8 | 58% | 15/26 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 16/18 | 76% | 32/42 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 13/18 | 67% | 28/42 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakagawa 1, Honda 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakagawa
💥 Big Hitter
Honda
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Naoki Nakagawa and Naoya Honda are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,120 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Sep 3, 2026
M25 Urayasu
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 9, 2026
M15 Tokyo
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakagawa | Honda | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Naoki Nakagawa | Naoya Honda | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 94% | 17/18 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 56% | 10/18 |
| 5 or more | 75% | 6/8 | 39% | 7/18 |
| 10 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 6% | 1/18 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakagawa | Honda |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–2 | 8–9 |
| Avg odds | 1.93 | 2.24 |
| ROI % | +9.3% | -4.4% |
| Units P/L | +0.74u | -0.74u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakagawa | Honda |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 4 |
| Distance | — | 542 mi · 872 km |
| Route | — | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 2 shared opponents, both Nakagawa and Honda posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Nakagawa | Honda |
|---|---|---|
| Ryota Tanuma | W 63 63 | L 64 67 26 |
| Takuya Kumasaka | L 57 57 | W 61 36 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ryuki Matsuda
M25 Urayasu · Final
Sep 6
Kuan-Yi Lee
M25 Urayasu · Semifinals
Sep 5
Ryota Tanuma
M25 Urayasu · Quarterfinals
Sep 4
Naoya Honda
M25 Urayasu · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Yua Taka
M25 Urayasu · 1st Round
Sep 2
Max Sheldon
M25 East Lansing · 2nd Round
Aug 13
Cooper Woestendick
M25 East Lansing · 1st Round
Aug 12
Clement Chidekh
M25 Southaven · 1st Round
Aug 5
Kristjan Tamm
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 4
Marat Sharipov
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Petr Bar Biryukov
Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 16
Jesse Flores
Guangzhou Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 14
Duan Hao
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 13
Ryota Tanuma
M25 Sapporo · 1st Round
Sep 9
Naoki Nakagawa
M25 Urayasu · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 33–62 matches
| Metric | Nakagawa | Honda |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 55% |
| Sets won | 55% | 56% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakagawa | Honda |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M25 | 1 | 0 |
| ITF M15 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakagawa | Honda |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
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