Mikael Arseneault vs Toby SamuelPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Mikael Arseneault and Toby Samuel have met 1 time since 2026; Toby Samuel leads 1–0. Across all meetings Arseneault has taken 0 sets to Samuel's 2. Their most recent meeting: Toby Samuel won at Winnipeg Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Arseneault | Samuel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mikael Arseneault | Toby Samuel | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 8/12 | 86% | 64/74 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 5/13 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 9/25 | 19% | 17/88 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 2/4 | 75% | 52/69 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 62% | 8/13 | 78% | 7/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 0% | 0/5 | 77% | 17/22 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 69% | 9/13 | 94% | 67/71 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 62% | 8/13 | 90% | 64/71 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Arseneault 0, Samuel 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Arseneault
🧱 The Wall
Samuel
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 54% vs 🧱 The Wall across 753 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Toby Samuel.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 21, 2026
Winnipeg Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Arseneault | Samuel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mikael Arseneault | Toby Samuel | ||
| 1 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 3 or more | 29% | 2/7 | 94% | 16/17 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 65% | 11/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Arseneault | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 3.87 | 1.88 |
| ROI % | -16.3% | +21.5% |
| Units P/L | -1.30u | +2.79u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Arseneault | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Samuel has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Arseneault's 0%).
| Opponent | Arseneault | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Liam Draxl | L 63 67 06 | W 64 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Matisse Farzam
M15 Champaign · 1st Round
Aug 26
Toby Samuel
Winnipeg Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Guillaume Dalmasso
Granby challenger
Jul 13
Timo Legout
M25 Laval · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Ryan Colby
M25 Laval · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Niels Peter Van Noord
M25 Laval · 1st Round
Jul 8
William Manning
Futures 2026
Jun 15
Sebastian Gorzny
M25 Wichita · 1st Round
Jun 10
Jay Dylan Hara Friend
Vancouver Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Jack Pinnington Jones
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 29
Liam Draxl
Winnipeg Challenger · Final
Jul 26
Charles Broom
Winnipeg Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 25
Yu Hsiou Hsu
Winnipeg Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Yosuke Watanuki
Winnipeg Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Mikael Arseneault
Winnipeg Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Jakub Mensik
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 26–90 matches
| Metric | Arseneault | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 50% | 82% |
| Sets won | 50% | 78% |
| Games won | 51% | 61% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Arseneault | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Arseneault | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
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