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Head-to-Head

Mert Alkaya vs Yu Hsiou HsuPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Upcoming match

Tournament
Ningboo Challenger
Level
ATP Challenger Tour
Round
Quarterfinals
Surface
Hard
Date & time
October 29 ยท 10:00 PM ET

Book odds

Mert Alkaya2.06
Yu Hsiou Hsu1.71

Set spread

Alkaya -1.53.35
Hsiou Hsu +1.51.28

Game spread

Alkaya +11.85
Hsiou Hsu -11.85
AlkayaHard-court specialist (95%)Hsiou HsuHard-court specialist (88%)

Record at prices like this

Mert Alkaya2.06implies 38%won 40%+2 pts

At 2.06 or longer, Mert Alkaya has won 6 of 15 (40%). That is level with the 38% the price implied.

Yu Hsiou Hsu1.71implies 63%won 54%โˆ’9 pts

At 1.71 or shorter, Yu Hsiou Hsu has won 15 of 28 (54%). The price implied 63%, so Yu Hsiou Hsu has fallen 9 points short of it.

Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.

Mert Alkaya meets Yu Hsiou Hsu in the quarterfinals of the Ningbo Challenger on October 29, with both ranked in the 320s and squaring off on hard court for the first time. The two have never played each other. Alkaya has won two straight matches and holds a 60% win rate over his last five outings after competing in three matches over the past two weeks. Hsu is on a two-match streak of his own, though his recent form is mixed; he won 60% of his last ten but only 40% of his last five.

Both players have posted identical hard-court records in the sample period, each holding 11-9 with a 55% win rate. Against shared opposition, results have split: Alkaya defeated Hiroki Moriya while falling to Matthew Dellavedova, whereas Hsu beat both Dellavedova and Moriya. The absence of a head-to-head record means neither player carries tactical familiarity into the match.

Alkaya's game spans multiple dimensions, combining aggression with consistency across the court. Yu Hsiou Hsu operates differently, relying on reaction and precision to disrupt rhythm from the baseline. The hard court and one-day turnaround between matches will test both players' readiness. Alkaya's balanced approach must maintain momentum against Hsu's ability to respond and redirect pace.

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Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches ยท Last 12 months

IndicatorAlkayaHsiou Hsu
Wins in straight sets75%71%
Wins a set when losing47%31%
Goes to a deciding set33%30%
Covers โˆ’1.5 sets as favorite61%41%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog45%64%
Tiebreak sets won50%64%
Wins after taking set 188%84%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 175%65%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Alkaya

๐Ÿ‘‘ The Complete Package

Elite serve & returnHigh BP conversionAll-surface dominanceClutch performer
vs

Hsu

๐Ÿชƒ Counterpuncher

Elite BP conversionStrong return gameDefensive consistencyRally tolerance

Matchup analysis

The ๐Ÿ‘‘ The Complete Package archetype wins about 54% vs ๐Ÿชƒ Counterpuncher across 1,776 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Mert Alkaya.

The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.

Previous meetings

First career meeting

Alkaya and Hsu have never faced each other on tour.

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets ยท Last 90 days

OutcomeAlkayaHsu
1 or more93%100%
3 or more87%67%
5 or more73%58%
10 or more20%0%
15 or more7%0%
20 or more7%0%

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches ยท Last 90 days

MetricAlkayaHsu
W-L10โ€“63โ€“5
Avg odds2.011.79
ROI %-11.1%-32.7%
Units P/L-1.77u-2.61u

Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced ยท Last 12 months

Across 5 shared opponents, both Alkaya and Hsu posted a 60% win rate.

OpponentAlkayaHsu
Hiroki Moriya
W
63
36
64
W
62
63
Matthew Dellavedova
L
26
16
W
63
62
Olle Wallin
L
26
63
16
L
63
26
57
Elias Ymer
W
76
46
60
W
Akira Santillan
W
62
62
L
63
36
57

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Alkaya
WWLLWWWW
W

Hiroki Moriya

Ningboo Challenger ยท 2nd Round

63
36
64

Oct 28

W

Rigele Te

Ningboo Challenger ยท 1st Round

763
64

Oct 26

L

Andre Ilagan

Guangzhou Challenger ยท 1st Round

46
63
16

Oct 19

L

Matthew Dellavedova

M25 Luan ยท Final

26
16

Oct 11

W

Nino Ehrenschneider

M25 Luan ยท Semifinals

26
63
64

Oct 10

W

Yan Cheng Chen

M25 Luan ยท Quarterfinals

63
64

Oct 9

W

Ko Suzuki

M25 Luan ยท 2nd Round

60
61

Oct 8

W

Isaac Becroft

M25 Luan ยท 1st Round

61
75

Oct 7

Hsu
WWLLLLWW
W

Yuta Shimizu

Ningboo Challenger ยท 2nd Round

75
36
64

Oct 28

W

Keegan Smith

Ningboo Challenger ยท 1st Round

46
75
767

Oct 27

L

Jie Cui

Guangzhou Challenger ยท 1st Round

26
46

Oct 20

L

Olle Wallin

Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, TPE-SWE 3-2 ยท Rubber 1

63
26
57

Sep 19

L

Ilya Ivashka

Shanghai Challenger ยท 1st Round

36
36

Sep 8

L

James Kent Trotter

Zhangjiagang Challenger ยท 2nd Round

46
57

Sep 2

W

Elias Ymer

Zhangjiagang Challenger ยท 1st Round

Sep 1

W

Matthew Dellavedova

M25 Taipei ยท Final

63
62

Aug 23

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won ยท Last 12 months ยท 63โ€“81 matches

MetricAlkayaHsu
Matches won63%54%
Sets won61%53%
Games won55%51%