Mert Alkaya vs Yu Hsiou HsuPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Ningboo Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- Quarterfinals
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 29 ยท 10:00 PM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 2.06 or longer, Mert Alkaya has won 6 of 15 (40%). That is level with the 38% the price implied.
At 1.71 or shorter, Yu Hsiou Hsu has won 15 of 28 (54%). The price implied 63%, so Yu Hsiou Hsu has fallen 9 points short of it.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Mert Alkaya meets Yu Hsiou Hsu in the quarterfinals of the Ningbo Challenger on October 29, with both ranked in the 320s and squaring off on hard court for the first time. The two have never played each other. Alkaya has won two straight matches and holds a 60% win rate over his last five outings after competing in three matches over the past two weeks. Hsu is on a two-match streak of his own, though his recent form is mixed; he won 60% of his last ten but only 40% of his last five.
Both players have posted identical hard-court records in the sample period, each holding 11-9 with a 55% win rate. Against shared opposition, results have split: Alkaya defeated Hiroki Moriya while falling to Matthew Dellavedova, whereas Hsu beat both Dellavedova and Moriya. The absence of a head-to-head record means neither player carries tactical familiarity into the match.
Alkaya's game spans multiple dimensions, combining aggression with consistency across the court. Yu Hsiou Hsu operates differently, relying on reaction and precision to disrupt rhythm from the baseline. The hard court and one-day turnaround between matches will test both players' readiness. Alkaya's balanced approach must maintain momentum against Hsu's ability to respond and redirect pace.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches ยท Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alkaya | Hsiou Hsu | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Mert Alkaya | Yu Hsiou Hsu | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 38/51 | 71% | 24/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 14/30 | 31% | 9/29 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 27/81 | 30% | 19/63 |
| Covers โ1.5 sets as favorite | 61% | 31/51 | 41% | 9/22 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 45% | 10/22 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 10/20 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 45/51 | 84% | 31/37 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 38/51 | 65% | 24/37 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alkaya
๐ The Complete Package
Hsu
๐ช Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The ๐ The Complete Package archetype wins about 54% vs ๐ช Counterpuncher across 1,776 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Mert Alkaya.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Alkaya and Hsu have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets ยท Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alkaya | Hsu | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Mert Alkaya | Yu Hsiou Hsu | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 67% | 8/12 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 7% | 1/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 7% | 1/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches ยท Last 90 days
| Metric | Alkaya | Hsu |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10โ6 | 3โ5 |
| Avg odds | 2.01 | 1.79 |
| ROI % | -11.1% | -32.7% |
| Units P/L | -1.77u | -2.61u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced ยท Last 12 months
Across 5 shared opponents, both Alkaya and Hsu posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Alkaya | Hsu |
|---|---|---|
| Hiroki Moriya | W 63 36 64 | W 62 63 |
| Matthew Dellavedova | L 26 16 | W 63 62 |
| Olle Wallin | L 26 63 16 | L 63 26 57 |
| Elias Ymer | W 76 46 60 | W |
| Akira Santillan | W 62 62 | L 63 36 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Hiroki Moriya
Ningboo Challenger ยท 2nd Round
Oct 28
Rigele Te
Ningboo Challenger ยท 1st Round
Oct 26
Andre Ilagan
Guangzhou Challenger ยท 1st Round
Oct 19
Matthew Dellavedova
M25 Luan ยท Final
Oct 11
Nino Ehrenschneider
M25 Luan ยท Semifinals
Oct 10
Yan Cheng Chen
M25 Luan ยท Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Ko Suzuki
M25 Luan ยท 2nd Round
Oct 8
Isaac Becroft
M25 Luan ยท 1st Round
Oct 7
Yuta Shimizu
Ningboo Challenger ยท 2nd Round
Oct 28
Keegan Smith
Ningboo Challenger ยท 1st Round
Oct 27
Jie Cui
Guangzhou Challenger ยท 1st Round
Oct 20
Olle Wallin
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, TPE-SWE 3-2 ยท Rubber 1
Sep 19
Ilya Ivashka
Shanghai Challenger ยท 1st Round
Sep 8
James Kent Trotter
Zhangjiagang Challenger ยท 2nd Round
Sep 2
Elias Ymer
Zhangjiagang Challenger ยท 1st Round
Sep 1
Matthew Dellavedova
M25 Taipei ยท Final
Aug 23
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won ยท Last 12 months ยท 63โ81 matches
| Metric | Alkaya | Hsu |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 54% |
| Sets won | 61% | 53% |
| Games won | 55% | 51% |
