Matias Soto vs Mwendwa MbithiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Matias Soto and Mwendwa Mbithi have met 1 time since 2026; Matias Soto leads 1–0. Across all meetings Soto has taken 2 sets to Mbithi's 1. Their most recent meeting: Matias Soto won at Quito Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Soto | Mbithi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Matias Soto | Mwendwa Mbithi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 26/38 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 19% | 5/26 | 30% | 6/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 27% | 17/64 | 32% | 12/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 62% | 18/29 | 50% | 9/18 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 41% | 11/27 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 61% | 11/18 | 56% | 5/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 32/36 | 79% | 15/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 26/36 | 58% | 11/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Soto 0, Mbithi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Soto
🪃 Counterpuncher
Mbithi
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
Both Matias Soto and Mwendwa Mbithi are 🪃 Counterpuncher types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 2,818 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jun 30, 2026
Quito Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Soto | Mbithi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Matias Soto | Mwendwa Mbithi | ||
| 1 or more | 89% | 16/18 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 3 or more | 67% | 12/18 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 5 or more | 56% | 10/18 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 6% | 1/18 | 29% | 2/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Soto | Mbithi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–8 | 4–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.78 | 2.10 |
| ROI % | -15.0% | -29.6% |
| Units P/L | -2.85u | -2.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Soto | Mbithi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 3 | — |
| Distance | 198 mi · 319 km | — |
| Route | CZE → GER | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Soto has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Mbithi's 33%).
| Opponent | Soto | Mbithi |
|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Claverie | W 75 75 | W 46 63 64 |
| Juan Sebastian Osorio | W 62 36 62 | L 57 67 |
| Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | L 16 16 | L 36 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Marvin Moeller
Augsburg Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Oleksii Krutykh
Augsburg Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 25
Rudolf Molleker
Prague Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 18
Felipe Meligeni Alves
M25 Sao Paulo · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Rafael Tosetto
M25 Sao Paulo · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Gabriel Tumasonis
M25 Sao Paulo · 1st Round
Jul 22
Nicolas Mejia
Bogota Challenger · Final
Jul 12
Lorenzo Claverie
Bogotá 5 challenger
Jul 11
Niels Peter Van Noord
M15 Huamantla · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Andres Delgadillo
M15 Huamantla · 1st Round
Jul 29
Alvin Nicholas Tudorica
M15 Huamantla · Semifinals
Jul 25
Emiliano Aguilera
M15 Huamantla · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Oswaldo Alejandro Reyes Tirado
M15 Huamantla · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Mauricio Echazu
M15 Huamantla · 1st Round
Jul 21
Christopher Papa
Bogotá 5 challenger
Jul 5
Matias Soto
Quito Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 30
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 37–64 matches
| Metric | Soto | Mbithi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 46% |
| Sets won | 56% | 47% |
| Games won | 52% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Soto | Mbithi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Soto | Mbithi |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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