Matias Soto vs Mwendwa MbithiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Matias Soto and Mwendwa Mbithi have met 1 time since 2026; Matias Soto leads 1–0. Across all meetings Soto has taken 2 sets to Mbithi's 1. Their most recent meeting: Matias Soto won at Quito Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Soto | Mbithi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Matias Soto | Mwendwa Mbithi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 24/36 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 23% | 6/26 | 22% | 4/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 29% | 18/62 | 29% | 10/35 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 16/27 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 41% | 12/29 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 10/16 | 50% | 4/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 82% | 14/17 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 71% | 24/34 | 65% | 11/17 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Soto 0, Mbithi 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Soto
💥 Big Hitter
Mbithi
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Matias Soto.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jun 30, 2026
Quito Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Soto | Mbithi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Matias Soto | Mwendwa Mbithi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 58% | 7/12 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 5 or more | 33% | 4/12 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Soto | Mbithi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–8 | 5–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.89 | 1.32 |
| ROI % | -18.8% | -13.1% |
| Units P/L | -2.44u | -0.92u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Soto | Mbithi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | BRA | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Soto has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Mbithi's 50%).
| Opponent | Soto | Mbithi |
|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Monferrer | W 62 64 | W 64 63 |
| Juan Sebastian Osorio | W 62 36 62 | L 57 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Thiago Seyboth Wild
Antofagasta Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Lautaro Midon
Curitiba Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Martin Landaluce
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, CHI-ESP 0-4 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Vitaliy Sachko
Tulln Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Marvin Moeller
Tulln Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Sandro Kopp
Tulln Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Kilian Feldbausch
Como Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Marvin Moeller
Augsburg Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Matteo Covato
M15 Quito · 2nd Round
Oct 8
Juan Dominguez Collado
M15 Quito · 1st Round
Oct 6
Niels Peter Van Noord
M15 Huamantla · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Andres Delgadillo
M15 Huamantla · 1st Round
Jul 29
Alvin Nicholas Tudorica
M15 Huamantla · Semifinals
Jul 25
Emiliano Aguilera
M15 Huamantla · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Oswaldo Alejandro Reyes Tirado
M15 Huamantla · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Mauricio Echazu
M15 Huamantla · 1st Round
Jul 21
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 35–62 matches
| Metric | Soto | Mbithi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 49% |
| Sets won | 55% | 48% |
| Games won | 52% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Soto | Mbithi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Soto | Mbithi |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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