Marco Trungelliti vs Matej DodigPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Lisbon Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- Quarterfinals
- Surface
- Clay
- Date & time
- October 23 · 5:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 2.01 or longer, Marco Trungelliti has won 50 of 112 (45%). The price implied 40%, so Marco Trungelliti has beaten it by 5 points.
At 1.72 or shorter, Matej Dodig has won 39 of 56 (70%). The price implied 61%, so Matej Dodig has beaten it by 9 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Matej Dodig meets Marco Trungelliti in the quarterfinals of the Lisbon Challenger on October 23rd. The clay court matchup pits the world number 138 against number 90 Trungelliti, who arrives with the higher ranking but a less consistent run through the event. Both players come in off victories, each claiming a two-match streak heading into the round.
The two have never met. Recent results offer mixed signals: Dodig defeated Pedro Martinez while Trungelliti lost to him, but Trungelliti beat Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in a match Dodig dropped. Dodig has won 9 of his last 10 matches overall and 4 of 5 on the Lisbon hardcourt run, while Trungelliti has taken 4 of 5 but won only 6 of his last 10 when viewed across a longer window. Dodig has also played more frequently, contesting ten matches in the past two weeks to Trungelliti's five.
Dodig constructs points across the court with patience and technical range. On clay specifically, his record stands at 18-2, a rate that reflects comfort in extended rallies and solidity from the baseline. Trungelliti performs better with momentum and clear attacking opportunities, posting a 12-8 clay mark that depends on early breaks and tactical aggression. The match will test whether Dodig's consistency and workload tolerance outweigh Trungelliti's ability to seize control when the points compress.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Trungelliti | Dodig | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Marco Trungelliti | Matej Dodig | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 19/38 | 57% | 26/46 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 15/30 | 46% | 11/24 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 50% | 34/68 | 44% | 31/70 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 27% | 10/37 | 46% | 21/46 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 17/27 | 75% | 18/24 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 49% | 17/35 | 55% | 17/31 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 73% | 27/37 | 88% | 36/41 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 51% | 19/37 | 63% | 26/41 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Trungelliti
🏹 Frontrunner
Dodig
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 454 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Trungelliti and Dodig have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Trungelliti | Dodig | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Marco Trungelliti | Matej Dodig | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 16/17 | 96% | 24/25 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 84% | 21/25 |
| 5 or more | 53% | 9/17 | 52% | 13/25 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 20% | 5/25 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 4% | 1/25 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/25 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Trungelliti | Dodig |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–8 | 22–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.21 | 1.92 |
| ROI % | +10.9% | +16.1% |
| Units P/L | +2.19u | +4.35u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Trungelliti | Dodig |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 3 | — |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Dodig has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Trungelliti's 38%).
| Opponent | Trungelliti | Dodig |
|---|---|---|
| Marco Cecchinato | W 76 75 | W 61 46 62 |
| Francesco Passaro | L 62 57 67 | L 75 16 46 |
| Pedro Martinez | L 75 67 16 | W 62 61 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | W 64 46 64 | L 26 67 |
| Giles Hussey | L 46 57 | L 36 16 |
| Joel Schwaerzler | L 67 76 67 | W 64 26 64 |
| Jonas Forejtek | W 76 46 76 | W 62 64 |
| Dan Added | L 57 36 | W 76 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Carlo Alberto Caniato
Lisbon Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 21
Tiago Pereira
Lisbon Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 20
Francesco Passaro
Maia Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 16
Milos Karol
Maia Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 15
Thiago Monteiro
Maia Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 13
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Alex Molcan
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Martin Landaluce
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Marco Cecchinato
Lisbon Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 21
Joao Domingues
Lisbon Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 20
Francesco Passaro
Maia Challenger · Semifinals
Oct 17
Tristan Boyer
Maia Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 16
Lukas Neumayer
Maia Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 15
Pedro Martinez
Maia Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 14
Elmer Moller
Braga Challenger · Final
Oct 11
Lukas Neumayer
Braga Challenger · Semifinals
Oct 10
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 70–73 matches
| Metric | Trungelliti | Dodig |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 55% | 66% |
| Sets won | 53% | 60% |
| Games won | 52% | 53% |