Head-to-Head

Luca Staeheli vs Takuya KumasakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇨🇭Luca Staeheli

#449 · 26 yrs · R

0–0

First meeting

🇯🇵Takuya Kumasaka

#661 · 28 yrs · R

Upcoming match

Tournament: Matsuyama Challenger
Level: ATP Challenger Tour
Round: 3rd Round Qualifying
Surface: Hard
Date & time: November 8 · 9:05 PM ET

Book odds

Luca Staeheli1.73

Takuya Kumasaka2.00

Set spread

Staeheli -1.52.61

Kumasaka +1.51.42

Game spread

Staeheli -1.51.86

Kumasaka +1.51.83

StaeheliHard-court specialist (60%)KumasakaHard-court specialist (100%)

Record at prices like this

Luca Staeheli1.73implies 62%won 74%+12 pts

At 1.73 or shorter, Luca Staeheli has won 14 of 19 (74%). The price implied 62%, so Luca Staeheli has beaten it by 12 points.

Takuya Kumasaka2.00implies 39%won 16%−23 pts

At 2.00 or longer, Takuya Kumasaka has won 3 of 19 (16%). The price implied 39%, so Takuya Kumasaka has fallen 23 points short of it.

Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.

Takuya Kumasaka faces Luca Staeheli in the 3rd Round Qualifying of the Matsuyama Challenger on November 8, 2026. Kumasaka, ranked 661, meets Staeheli at 449 on hard court. Both players arrive with single-match winning streaks after competing today.

The two have never met. Kumasaka has won 4 of his last 5 matches and 8 of his last 10, while Staeheli has won 3 of his last 5 and 7 of his last 10. On hard courts over their recent sample, Staeheli holds a 13-7 record at 65%, compared with Kumasaka's 11-9 at 55%.

Both players operate as counterpunchers who thrive on reaction and defensive positioning. Kumasaka's hard court record sits below 60%, suggesting inconsistency on the surface. Staeheli's 65% hard court win rate reflects steadier performance in these conditions. The match will test whether Kumasaka's current form can sustain against a more reliable hard court operator, and whether Staeheli can maintain that consistency under the pressure of a qualifier deep run.

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Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	Staeheli	Kumasaka
Indicator	Luca Staeheli		Takuya Kumasaka
Wins in straight sets	69%	36/52	86%	25/29
Wins a set when losing	21%	6/29	38%	11/29
Goes to a deciding set	27%	22/81	26%	15/58
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	54%	27/50	58%	22/38
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	30%	7/23	31%	5/16
Tiebreak sets won	19%	3/16	50%	7/14
Wins after taking set 1	93%	42/45	84%	27/32
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	80%	36/45	78%	25/32

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Staeheli

🪃 Counterpuncher

Elite BP conversionStrong return gameDefensive consistencyRally tolerance

Kumasaka

🪃 Counterpuncher

Elite BP conversionStrong return gameDefensive consistencyRally tolerance

Matchup analysis

Both Luca Staeheli and Takuya Kumasaka are 🪃 Counterpuncher types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,176 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.

Previous meetings

First career meeting

Staeheli and Kumasaka have never faced each other on tour.

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Staeheli	Kumasaka
Outcome	Luca Staeheli		Takuya Kumasaka
1 or more	95%	19/20	100%	13/13
3 or more	75%	15/20	77%	10/13
5 or more	40%	8/20	15%	2/13
10 or more	5%	1/20	0%	0/13
15 or more	0%	0/20	0%	0/13
20 or more	0%	0/20	0%	0/13

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Staeheli	Kumasaka
W-L	15–5	8–5
Avg odds	1.81	1.60
ROI %	+21.9%	-16.8%
Units P/L	+4.38u	-2.18u

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Staeheli has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Kumasaka's 50%).

Opponent	Staeheli	Kumasaka
Haolong He	W 62 60	W 62 63
Wishaya Trongcharoenchaikul	W 63 63	L 46 26

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Staeheli

WLLWWWWL

Saki Tange

Matsuyama Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying

Nov 8

Masamichi Imamura

Taipei Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying

Nov 1

Mikalai Haliak

M15 Shenzhen · Final

Oct 25

Boris Butulija

M15 Shenzhen · Semifinals

Oct 24

Daniil Sarksian

M15 Shenzhen · Quarterfinals

Oct 23

Maxim Shin

M15 Shenzhen · 2nd Round

Oct 22

Haolong He

M15 Shenzhen · 1st Round

Oct 21

Andy Andrade

Columbus Challenger · 2nd Round

6⁷7

Sep 30

Kumasaka

WLWWWWLW

Yuta Tomida

Matsuyama Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying

Nov 8

Taiyo Yamanaka

M15 Yanagawa City · Quarterfinals

Oct 30

Sora Fukuda

M15 Yanagawa City · 2nd Round

Oct 29

Ryota Tanuma

M15 Yanagawa City · 1st Round

Oct 28

Kentaro Otsuka

M15 Yanagawa City · 3rd Round Qualifying

Oct 27

Hayato Tokoda

M15 Yanagawa City · 1st Round Qualifying

Oct 26

Yuto Oki

M15 Tanagura · Semifinals