Luca Potenza vs Matthew William DonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luca Potenza and Matthew William Donald have met 1 time since 2026; Matthew William Donald leads 1–0. Across all meetings Potenza has taken 0 sets to Donald's 2. Their most recent meeting: Matthew William Donald won at Milan challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Potenza | William Donald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Potenza | Matthew William Donald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 21/32 | 76% | 38/50 |
| Wins a set when losing | 31% | 9/29 | 26% | 7/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 25% | 19/77 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 56% | 14/25 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 48% | 15/31 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 48% | 10/21 | 68% | 17/25 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 27/33 | 94% | 44/47 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 64% | 21/33 | 81% | 38/47 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Potenza 0, William Donald 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Potenza
🛡️ The Spoiler
Donald
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The ⚔️ The Gladiator archetype wins about 54% vs 🛡️ The Spoiler across 288 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Matthew William Donald.
The Gladiator players often use physical intensity and balanced game to pressure the the spoiler's strong court coverage.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jun 28, 2026
Milan challenger
C Clay
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Potenza | Donald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luca Potenza | Matthew William Donald | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 71% | 10/14 |
| 3 or more | 47% | 7/15 | 21% | 3/14 |
| 5 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/15 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Potenza | Donald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–7 | 9–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.11 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | -7.7% | +5.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.23u | +0.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Potenza | Donald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | ESP → GBR | SUI |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Potenza has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Donald's 30%).
| Opponent | Potenza | Donald |
|---|---|---|
| Fausto Tabacco | L 36 46 | L 46 06 |
| Giovanni Oradini | W 76 26 64 | L 36 76 36 |
| Mae Malige | W 26 63 75 | L 26 76 26 |
| Rosario Lanza | W 62 60 | W 64 63 |
| Sebastian Sorger | L 57 64 36 | L 36 46 |
| Darwin Blanch | W 64 75 | L 36 46 |
| Nicolas Mejia | L 36 16 | W 64 61 |
| Peter Makk | L 46 64 16 | W 62 62 |
| Luca Wiedenmann | W 64 75 | L 57 26 |
| Max Schoenhaus | L 64 26 26 | L 67 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alec Deckers
Roehampton 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 25
Aryan Shah
M25+H Tauste · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Samuel Heredia
M25+H Tauste · 1st Round
Aug 4
Pietro Fellin
Trieste challenger
Jul 6
Lorenzo Angelini
Trieste challenger
Jul 5
Matthew William Donald
Milan challenger
Jun 28
Elmer Moller
Targu Mures Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 23
Fausto Tabacco
M25 Milano · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Louis Wessels
M25 Muttenz · Semifinals
Aug 15
Dimitris Sakellaridis
M25 Muttenz · Quarterfinals
Aug 14
Oleksandr Ovcharenko
M25 Muttenz · 2nd Round
Aug 13
Lorenzo Bocchi
M25 Muttenz · 1st Round
Aug 11
Max Wiskandt
M25 Kassel · Final
Jul 12
Ioannis Xilas
M25 Kassel · Quarterfinals
Jul 11
Adrian Oetzbach
M25 Kassel · Semifinals
Jul 11
Nikolai Barsukov
M25 Kassel · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 61–77 matches
| Metric | Potenza | Donald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 52% | 65% |
| Sets won | 51% | 62% |
| Games won | 51% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Potenza | Donald |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Potenza | Donald |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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