Luca Nardi vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luca Nardi and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 2 times since 2022; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Hamburg European Open - Hamburg in 2022 on clay. Busta has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Nardi has taken 1 sets to Busta's 4. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nardi | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Nardi | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 76% | 13/17 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 65% | 13/20 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 17/37 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 10/21 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 10/15 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 8/22 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 65% | 13/20 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 13/20 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nardi 0, Carreno Busta 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nardi
🏹 Frontrunner
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
Both Luca Nardi and Pablo Carreno Busta are 🏹 Frontrunner types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 280 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Feb 22, 2026
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jul 19, 2022
Hamburg European Open - Hamburg
C Clay · 1st Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nardi | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 0–1 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.58 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | -100.0% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.00u | -1.18u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nardi | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | — | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (40% vs Nardi's 0%).
| Opponent | Nardi | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Llamas Ruiz | L 16 67 | L 46 26 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 64 46 26 | L 16 67 64 26 |
| Valentin Royer | L 67 57 | L 61 57 26 |
| Andrea Pellegrino | L 64 36 36 | W 63 64 |
| Martin Damm | L 36 67 | W 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Villena Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 5
Federico Cina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Andrea Guerrieri
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 11
Otto Virtanen
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 24
Rio Noguchi
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Remy Bertola
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 15
Giles Hussey
Lexus Nottingham Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 14
Oscar Weightman
Lexus Nottingham Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 13
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 38–58 matches
| Metric | Nardi | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 45% | 62% |
| Sets won | 51% | 58% |
| Games won | 50% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nardi | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nardi | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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