Luca Nardi vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luca Nardi and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 2 times since 2022; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Hamburg European Open - Hamburg in 2022 on clay. Busta has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Nardi has taken 1 sets to Busta's 4. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nardi | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Nardi | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 13/18 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 14/22 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 48% | 19/40 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 10/21 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 61% | 11/18 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 65% | 13/20 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 13/20 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nardi 0, Carreno Busta 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nardi
🏹 Frontrunner
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
Both Luca Nardi and Pablo Carreno Busta are 🏹 Frontrunner types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 152 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Feb 22, 2026
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jul 19, 2022
Hamburg European Open - Hamburg
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nardi | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luca Nardi | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 67% | 4/6 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nardi | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.89 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -38.1% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.43u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nardi | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (83% vs Nardi's 33%).
| Opponent | Nardi | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Valentin Royer | L 67 57 | L 61 57 26 |
| Hugo Grenier | W 64 63 | W 46 61 64 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 64 46 26 | W 63 76 63 |
| Andrea Pellegrino | L 64 36 36 | W 63 64 |
| Martin Damm | L 36 67 | W 63 63 |
| Sebastian Ofner | W 36 63 62 | W 36 63 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Andrea Guerrieri
Umag
Jul 11
Otto Virtanen
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 24
Rio Noguchi
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Remy Bertola
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 15
Giles Hussey
Lexus Nottingham Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 14
Oscar Weightman
Lexus Nottingham Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 13
Jacob Fearnley
Ilkley Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 10
Remy Bertola
Perugia Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 4
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–65 matches
| Metric | Nardi | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 65% |
| Sets won | 50% | 60% |
| Games won | 50% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nardi | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nardi | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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