Luca Castagnola vs Valerio AboianPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Luca Castagnola and Valerio Aboian have met 1 time since 2026; Valerio Aboian leads 1–0. Across all meetings Castagnola has taken 1 sets to Aboian's 2. Their most recent meeting: Valerio Aboian won at Genoa Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Castagnola | Aboian | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Luca Castagnola | Valerio Aboian | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 19/29 | 63% | 33/52 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 14/35 | 29% | 10/35 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 24/64 | 33% | 29/87 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 53% | 16/30 | 47% | 20/43 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 45% | 14/31 | 58% | 18/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 8/14 | 52% | 11/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 22/28 | 90% | 43/48 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 19/28 | 69% | 33/48 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Castagnola 0, Aboian 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Castagnola
🧱 The Wall
Aboian
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs 🧱 The Wall across 174 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Valerio Aboian.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 6, 2026
Genoa Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Castagnola | Aboian | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Luca Castagnola | Valerio Aboian | ||
| 1 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 91% | 19/21 |
| 3 or more | 35% | 6/17 | 67% | 14/21 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 43% | 9/21 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 5% | 1/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Castagnola | Aboian |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–7 | 13–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.16 | 2.19 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | +10.7% |
| Units P/L | -3.17u | +2.36u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Castagnola | Aboian |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 4 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | ARG |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Aboian has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Castagnola's 25%).
| Opponent | Castagnola | Aboian |
|---|---|---|
| Federico Iannaccone | L 36 36 | W 64 61 |
| Sebastian Sorger | L 26 26 | W 67 60 62 |
| Filip Jeff Planinsek | W 36 62 63 | L 67 67 |
| Bruno Fernandez | L 26 46 | L 36 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Robert Strombachs
M15 Sharm ElSheikh · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Jan Werblinski
M15 Sharm ElSheikh · 1st Round
Sep 30
Fares Zakaria
M25 Sharm ElSheikh · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Jan Hrazdil
M25 Sharm ElSheikh · 1st Round
Sep 23
Valerio Aboian
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 6
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini
M15 Bologna · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Matic Hribar
M15 Bologna · 1st Round
Sep 2
Sebastian Sorger
M25 Slovenj Gradec · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Genaro Alberto Olivieri
Antofagasta Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 5
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo
Buenos Aires Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Genaro Alberto Olivieri
Buenos Aires Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Matias Franco Descotte
Buenos Aires Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 21
Julian Cundom
Buenos Aires Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 20
Pedro Martinez
Genoa Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Andrea Pellegrino
Genoa Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Juan Cruz Martin Manzano
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 64–87 matches
| Metric | Castagnola | Aboian |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 45% | 60% |
| Sets won | 47% | 56% |
| Games won | 50% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Castagnola | Aboian |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Castagnola | Aboian |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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