Lorenzo Carboni vs Tobia Costanzo Baragiola MordiniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- M25 Santa Margherita di Pula
- Level
- ITF M25
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Clay
- Date & time
- September 21 · 2:35 AM ET
Book odds
Record at prices like this
At 1.19 or shorter, Lorenzo Carboni has won 15 of 16 (94%). The price implied 85%, so Lorenzo Carboni has beaten it by 9 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini meets Lorenzo Carboni in the 1st Round of the M25 Santa Margherita di Pula on clay on September 21. The two have never faced each other. Carboni holds the higher ranking at 569, while Mordini sits at 1094.
Mordini has won 8 of his last 10 matches and comes in off a loss five days ago. Carboni has dropped four straight and won only one match in the past 14 days. On clay, Mordini holds a 12-8 record; Carboni stands at 10-10. The two faced common opponent Gabriele Crivellaro recently, with Mordini winning and Carboni losing.
Mordini's game relies on consistency and defensive solidity, built to absorb pace and extend rallies. Carboni plays a more aggressive style, seeking to finish points on his terms. The match will test whether Carboni can generate rhythm and control against a player comfortable grinding from the baseline, or whether Mordini's steadiness can neutralize Carboni's attacking intent across a clay surface.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carboni | Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lorenzo Carboni | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 23/34 | 89% | 17/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 12/31 | 33% | 9/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 35% | 23/65 | 24% | 11/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 51% | 18/35 | 50% | 1/2 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 48% | 10/21 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 8/16 | 36% | 5/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 73% | 29/40 | 85% | 17/20 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 57% | 23/40 | 85% | 17/20 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Carboni
⚔️ The Gladiator
Mordini
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
⚔️ The Gladiator vs 🧱 The Wall is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 418 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Carboni and Mordini have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Carboni | Mordini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Lorenzo Carboni | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini | ||
| 1 or more | 90% | 9/10 | 78% | 14/18 |
| 3 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 17% | 3/18 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Carboni | Mordini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 6–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.52 | 2.70 |
| ROI % | -46.6% | +36.6% |
| Units P/L | -5.13u | +4.03u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Carboni | Mordini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 4 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | SUI → ITA → ESP | AUT → ITA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Mordini has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Carboni's 25%).
| Opponent | Carboni | Mordini |
|---|---|---|
| Matteo Sciahbasi | L 63 26 16 | L 36 46 |
| Gabriele Crivellaro | L 46 46 | W 63 76 |
| Nicolas Ulrich | W 62 61 | W 62 62 |
| Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | L 62 26 46 | L 76 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Matteo Sciahbasi
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · 1st Round
Sep 15
Gerard Campana Lee
Seville Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 6
Pedro Martinez
Como Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Andrey Chepelev
M25 Lausanne · Semifinals
Aug 29
Noah Karma
M25 Lausanne · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Nicolas Ulrich
M25 Lausanne · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Nicolas Ulrich
M25 Lausanne · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Arthur Bellegy
M25 Lausanne · 1st Round
Aug 25
Alexander Weis
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Gabriele Crivellaro
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · 1st Round
Sep 15
Mattias Pisanu
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 14
Vittorio Gillerio
M25 Santa Margherita di Pula · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 13
Jan Kupcic
M15 Budapest · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Kirill Kivattsev
M15 Budapest · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Vincent Dullinger
M15 Budapest · 1st Round
Sep 9
Marko Retelj
M15 Budapest · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 8
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–65 matches
| Metric | Carboni | Mordini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 52% | 41% |
| Sets won | 52% | 46% |
| Games won | 51% | 50% |