Koki Matsuda vs Naoki NakagawaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Koki Matsuda and Naoki Nakagawa have met 1 time since 2026; Koki Matsuda leads 1–0. Across all meetings Matsuda has taken 2 sets to Nakagawa's 0. Their most recent meeting: Koki Matsuda won at M15 Tokyo (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Matsuda | Nakagawa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Koki Matsuda | Naoki Nakagawa | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 73% | 30/41 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 10/26 | 29% | 4/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 21/67 | 30% | 10/33 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 21/38 | 52% | 11/21 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 16/24 | 75% | 9/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 82% | 23/28 | 50% | 4/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 34/40 | 89% | 16/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 30/40 | 72% | 13/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Matsuda 1, Nakagawa 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Matsuda
🤖 Servebot
Nakagawa
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 11, 2026
M15 Tokyo
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Matsuda | Nakagawa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Koki Matsuda | Naoki Nakagawa | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 88% | 15/17 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 75% | 6/8 |
| 10 or more | 24% | 4/17 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Matsuda | Nakagawa |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–9 | 6–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.06 | 1.93 |
| ROI % | -7.8% | +9.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.41u | +0.74u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Matsuda | Nakagawa |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Matsuda has a higher win rate against shared opponents (83% vs Nakagawa's 33%).
| Opponent | Matsuda | Nakagawa |
|---|---|---|
| Ryuki Matsuda | W 62 76 | W 63 76 |
| Jake Delaney | W 76 76 | L 57 67 |
| Colin Sinclair | W 63 63 | W 76 46 64 |
| Cruz Hewitt | W 64 57 64 | L 46 63 16 |
| Yusuke Takahashi | L 36 26 | L 46 46 |
| Jumpei Yamasaki | W 62 76 | L 36 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Evan Zhu
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Keisuke Saitoh
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Arthur Weber
Phan Thiet 4 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Philip Sekulic
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 11
Martin Borisiouk
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Jake Delaney
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Fanming Meng
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
Ryuki Matsuda
M25 Urayasu · Final
Sep 6
Kuan-Yi Lee
M25 Urayasu · Semifinals
Sep 5
Ryota Tanuma
M25 Urayasu · Quarterfinals
Sep 4
Naoya Honda
M25 Urayasu · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Yua Taka
M25 Urayasu · 1st Round
Sep 2
Max Sheldon
M25 East Lansing · 2nd Round
Aug 13
Cooper Woestendick
M25 East Lansing · 1st Round
Aug 12
Clement Chidekh
M25 Southaven · 1st Round
Aug 5
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 33–68 matches
| Metric | Matsuda | Nakagawa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 58% |
| Sets won | 59% | 55% |
| Games won | 51% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Matsuda | Nakagawa |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M15 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Matsuda | Nakagawa |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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