Koki Matsuda vs Naoki NakagawaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Koki Matsuda and Naoki Nakagawa have met 1 time since 2026; Koki Matsuda leads 1–0. Across all meetings Matsuda has taken 2 sets to Nakagawa's 0. Their most recent meeting: Koki Matsuda won at M15 Tokyo (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Matsuda | Nakagawa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Koki Matsuda | Naoki Nakagawa | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 79% | 31/39 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 45% | 10/22 | 35% | 6/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 18/61 | 31% | 11/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 23/40 | 52% | 12/23 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 77% | 10/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 76% | 16/21 | 43% | 3/7 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 35/41 | 80% | 16/20 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 31/41 | 70% | 14/20 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Matsuda 1, Nakagawa 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Matsuda
💥 Big Hitter
Nakagawa
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 3,444 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 11, 2026
M15 Tokyo
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Matsuda | Nakagawa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Koki Matsuda | Naoki Nakagawa | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 83% | 15/18 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 83% | 10/12 |
| 10 or more | 11% | 2/18 | 33% | 4/12 |
| 15 or more | 6% | 1/18 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Matsuda | Nakagawa |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–9 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.74 | 2.15 |
| ROI % | -12.8% | -4.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.69u | -0.53u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Matsuda | Nakagawa |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 3 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | TUR → KAZ → TPE | USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Matsuda has a higher win rate against shared opponents (86% vs Nakagawa's 43%).
| Opponent | Matsuda | Nakagawa |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Sinclair | W 63 63 | W 76 46 64 |
| Ryuki Matsuda | W 62 76 | W 61 64 |
| Cruz Hewitt | W 64 57 64 | L 46 63 16 |
| Yusuke Takahashi | L 36 26 | L 46 46 |
| Jumpei Yamasaki | W 62 76 | L 36 16 |
| Taiyo Yamanaka | W 63 67 63 | L 63 46 46 |
| Keisuke Saitoh | W 75 57 64 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Chih-Jen Ho
M25 Taipei · 1st Round
Aug 18
Hayato Matsuoka
Astana Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 10
Gijs Brouwer
Istanbul Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 7
Paul Inchauspe
Istanbul Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kerem Yilmaz
Istanbul Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 4
Gabriel Debru
Samsun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Colin Sinclair
Samsun Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Karan Singh
Samsun Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 27
Max Sheldon
M25 East Lansing · 2nd Round
Aug 13
Cooper Woestendick
M25 East Lansing · 1st Round
Aug 12
Clement Chidekh
M25 Southaven · 1st Round
Aug 5
Koki Matsuda
M15 Tokyo · Semifinals
Jul 11
Shintaro Imai
M15 Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Naoya Honda
M15 Tokyo · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Sanhui Shin
M15 Tokyo · 1st Round
Jul 8
Ryota Tanuma
M15 Tokyo · 1st Round
Jul 1
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 36–62 matches
| Metric | Matsuda | Nakagawa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 53% |
| Sets won | 62% | 53% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Matsuda | Nakagawa |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M15 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Matsuda | Nakagawa |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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