Kei Nishikori vs Roger FedererPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Kei Nishikori and Roger Federer have met 5 times since 2015; Roger Federer leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at ATP Finals in 2015 on hard. On hard courts Federer leads 3–1. Across all meetings Nishikori has taken 4 sets to Federer's 9. Their most recent meeting: Roger Federer won at Wimbledon (2019).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nishikori | Federer | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Kei Nishikori | Roger Federer | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 45% | 5/11 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 4/10 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 48% | 10/21 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 5/12 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 40% | 2/5 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 9/11 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 45% | 5/11 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nishikori 1, Federer 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nishikori
🏹 Frontrunner
Federer
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,115 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Roger Federer.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Jul 10, 2019
Wimbledon
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Nov 11, 2018
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Nov 2, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Oct 11, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Nov 7, 2015
ATP Finals
H Hard · Round Robin
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nishikori | Federer |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 2.70 | - |
| ROI % | -15.7% | - |
| Units P/L | -1.41u | - |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nishikori | Federer |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | JPN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Rei Sakamoto
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Michael Antonius
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 27
Sebastian Ofner
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 12
Francisco Comesana
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Michael Zheng
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 1
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Cameron Norrie
Wimbledon · Round of 32
Jul 11
Lorenzo Sonego
Wimbledon · Round of 16
Jul 11
Richard Gasquet
Wimbledon · Round of 64
Jul 11
Adrian Mannarino
Wimbledon · Round of 128
Jul 11
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Lorenzo Sonego
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Cameron Norrie
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Richard Gasquet
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 21–21 matches
| Metric | Nishikori | Federer |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 52% | - |
| Sets won | 50% | - |
| Games won | 50% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nishikori | Federer |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nishikori | Federer |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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