Kamil Majchrzak vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Kamil Majchrzak and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 4 times since 2015; Kamil Majchrzak leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Mohammedia in 2015 on clay. On clay courts Majchrzak leads 3–0. Across all meetings Majchrzak has taken 6 sets to Busta's 5. Their most recent meeting: Kamil Majchrzak won at Madrid Challenger (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Majchrzak | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Kamil Majchrzak | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 64% | 14/22 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 57% | 13/23 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 47% | 21/45 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 39% | 9/23 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 86% | 18/21 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 16/35 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 67% | 18/27 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 52% | 14/27 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Majchrzak 1, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Majchrzak
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,115 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Kamil Majchrzak.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Apr 12, 2025
Madrid Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jan 14, 2025
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 20, 2024
Poznan Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 9, 2015
Mohammedia
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Majchrzak | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Kamil Majchrzak | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 83% | 10/12 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 8/12 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 33% | 4/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 8% | 1/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Majchrzak | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–9 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.30 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | -24.1% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.38u | -1.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Majchrzak | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 6 |
| Distance | 2,283 mi · 3,674 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Majchrzak has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Busta's 30%).
| Opponent | Majchrzak | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 64 63 | L 36 64 16 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 63 75 75 | W 46 76 64 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 76 61 | L 46 26 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 63 64 | W 64 26 76 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 57 67 | L 16 67 64 26 |
| Valentin Royer | W 64 75 | L 61 57 26 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | L 61 26 36 | L 63 57 57 |
| Felix Gill | W 63 63 | W 46 63 62 |
| Pedro Martinez | W 64 64 | L |
| Quentin Halys | L 67 16 | L 64 57 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Yannick Hanfmann
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Arthur Fils
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Lorenzo Sonego
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Bu Yunchaokete
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 26
Mattia Bellucci
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Alex de Minaur
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
James Duckworth
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 2
Sep 19
Valentin Vacherot
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–58 matches
| Metric | Majchrzak | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 48% | 62% |
| Sets won | 51% | 58% |
| Games won | 50% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Majchrzak | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 3 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Majchrzak | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 3 | 0 |
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