Jordan Thompson vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Jordan Thompson and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 3 times since 2021; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona in 2021 on clay. Busta has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Thompson has taken 1 sets to Busta's 6. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Davis Cup, Group B, Valencia (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Thompson | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jordan Thompson | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 83% | 5/6 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 20% | 1/5 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 18% | 2/11 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 63% | 5/8 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 33% | 1/3 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 3/6 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 5/6 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 83% | 5/6 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Thompson 0, Carreno Busta 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Thompson
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 767 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 15, 2024
Davis Cup, Group B, Valencia
H Hard · Rubber 1
Jun 24, 2021
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca
G Grass · Quarterfinals
Apr 21, 2021
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · 2nd Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Thompson | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | - | 2.29 |
| ROI % | - | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | - | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Thompson | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 1 shared opponent, both Thompson and Busta posted a 0% win rate.
| Opponent | Thompson | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Tabilo | L 46 36 | L 26 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nuno Borges
Australian Open - Melbourne · 2nd Round
Jan 21
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Australian Open - Melbourne · 1st Round
Jan 19
Jurij Rodionov
Noumea Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jan 8
Nicolas Moreno De Alboran
Noumea Challenger · 2nd Round
Jan 7
Emile Hudd
Noumea Challenger · 1st Round
Jan 6
Erik Arutiunian
Sioux Falls Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 22
Michael Mmoh
Sioux Falls Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 20
Dan Added
Roanne Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 8
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 13–65 matches
| Metric | Thompson | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 54% | 65% |
| Sets won | 53% | 60% |
| Games won | 52% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Thompson | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Thompson | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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