Head-to-Head

Joel Schwaerzler vs Luca PotenzaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇦🇹Joel Schwaerzler

#171 · 20 yrs · L

TitleWon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger

0–0

First meeting

🇮🇹Luca Potenza

#488 · 26 yrs · R

Upcoming match

Tournament: Manacor Challenger
Level: ATP Challenger Tour
Round: 2nd Round
Surface: Hard
Date & time: September 3 · 9:10 AM ET

Book odds

Luca Potenza3.65

Joel Schwaerzler1.25

PotenzaHard-court specialist (67%)SchwaerzlerClay-court specialist (77%)

Record at prices like this

Luca Potenza3.6526% fairWon 18%

Priced around 3.65 or longer, Luca Potenza has won 3 of 17 matches, 18% against a fair-price expectation of 22%.

Book prices only, with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Sample sizes below ten are not shown.

Joel Schwaerzler and Luca Potenza meet next at the Manacor Challenger on September 3 on hard.

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Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	Schwaerzler	Potenza
Indicator	Joel Schwaerzler		Luca Potenza
Wins in straight sets	50%	16/32	63%	20/32
Wins a set when losing	36%	10/28	31%	9/29
Goes to a deciding set	43%	26/60	34%	21/61
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	32%	11/34	50%	11/22
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	48%	12/25	52%	17/33
Tiebreak sets won	66%	23/35	48%	10/21
Wins after taking set 1	86%	25/29	82%	27/33
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	55%	16/29	61%	20/33

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Schwaerzler

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Potenza

🛡️ The Spoiler

Strong court coverageStrong retrievalDefensive consistencyBeats elite opponents

Matchup analysis

The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 59% vs 🛡️ The Spoiler across 301 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Joel Schwaerzler.

Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the spoiler's strong court coverage.

Previous meetings

First career meeting

Schwaerzler and Potenza have never faced each other on tour.

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Schwaerzler	Potenza
Outcome	Joel Schwaerzler		Luca Potenza
1 or more	93%	13/14	100%	13/13
3 or more	79%	11/14	46%	6/13
5 or more	43%	6/14	31%	4/13
10 or more	7%	1/14	8%	1/13
15 or more	0%	0/14	0%	0/13
20 or more	0%	0/14	0%	0/13

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Schwaerzler	Potenza
W-L	7–8	7–7
Avg odds	2.01	2.42
ROI %	-20.9%	+6.0%
Units P/L	-3.14u	+0.84u

Travel

Last 30 days

Metric	Schwaerzler	Potenza
Countries	4	2
Events	5	3
Matches	10	6
Distance	11,863 mi · 19,091 km	—
Route	POL → USA → JAM → USA → ESP	ESP → GBR → ESP

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Schwaerzler has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Potenza's 50%).

Opponent	Schwaerzler	Potenza
Enrico Dalla Valle	W 63 36 63	L 67 46
Edas Butvilas	W 76 36 63	W 61 64
Petr Brunclik	W 76 36 76	L 46 36
Vadym Ursu	W 76 64	W 64 76

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Schwaerzler

WLWLLWWW

Max Basing

Manacor Challenger · 1st Round

6⁴7

Sep 1

Andrea Guerrieri

U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying

Aug 26

Gustavo Heide

U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying

Aug 24

Kenta Miyoshi

Kingston 1 Challenger · 1st Round

Aug 18

Andy Andrade

Brownsburg Challenger · 1st Round

76⁵

Aug 12

Andrea Guerrieri

Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · Final

76⁴

Aug 9

Mathys Erhard

Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · Semifinals

76⁵

Aug 8

Ilya Ivashka

Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · Quarterfinals

76⁴

Aug 7

Potenza

WWWLLWLW

David Jorda Sanchis

Manacor Challenger · 1st Round

Sep 2

Carl Emil Overbeck

Manacor Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying

Sep 1

Daniel Masur

Manacor Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying

76⁴

76⁵

Aug 31

Alec Deckers

Roehampton 2 Challenger · 1st Round

6⁶7

Aug 25

Aryan Shah

M25+H Tauste · 2nd Round

Aug 5

Samuel Heredia

M25+H Tauste · 1st Round

Aug 4

Pietro Fellin

Trieste challenger

Jul 6

Lorenzo Angelini