Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇳🇱Jesper de Jong
#99 · 26 yrs · R
2 meetings · sets 3–2
🇪🇸Roberto Carballes Baena
#209 · 33 yrs · R
5wJesper de Jong and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 2 times since 2026; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Murcia Challenger in 2026 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Jong leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Jong has taken 3 sets to Baena's 2. Their most recent meeting: Jesper de Jong won at Cattolica Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Jong | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jesper de Jong | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 44% | 11/25 | 58% | 15/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 30% | 8/27 | 43% | 9/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 42% | 22/52 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 27% | 9/33 | 45% | 13/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 35% | 6/17 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 65% | 13/20 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 75% | 15/20 | 85% | 22/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 55% | 11/20 | 58% | 15/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Jong 1, Carballes Baena 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Jong
💥 Big Hitter
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jun 14, 2026
Cattolica Challenger
C Clay · Final
Mar 21, 2026
Murcia Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Jong | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jesper de Jong | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 16/16 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 16/16 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 5 or more | 63% | 10/16 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 25% | 4/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 19% | 3/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Jong | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–7 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.10 | 1.74 |
| ROI % | -9.7% | -20.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.55u | -2.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Jong | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 1,731 mi · 2,785 km | — |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Jong has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Baena's 50%).
| Opponent | Jong | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Max Houkes | W 61 63 | W 64 36 62 |
| Sebastian Baez | L 46 26 | L 46 26 |
| Stefano Travaglia | W 67 63 61 | W 61 67 63 |
| Hugo Dellien | W 46 62 76 | L 36 63 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Adam Walton
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Hugo Gaston
Quebec City Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Quebec City Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Dane Sweeny
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Alex Michelsen
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Timofey Skatov
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Sebastian Baez
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Vilius Gaubas
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 13
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Mackenzie McDonald
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Mark Ceban
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Sebastian Ofner
Parma Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jun 18
Stefano Travaglia
Parma Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Miguel Damas
Parma Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–59 matches
| Metric | Jong | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 49% | 55% |
| Sets won | 46% | 54% |
| Games won | 50% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Jong | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Jong | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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