Hugo Gaston vs Sebastian OfnerPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Hugo Gaston and Sebastian Ofner have met 6 times since 2020; Sebastian Ofner leads 4–2. Their first meeting came at Hamburg Challenger in 2020 on hard. On clay courts Ofner leads 2–1. On hard courts Ofner leads 2–1. Across all meetings Gaston has taken 5 sets to Ofner's 9. Their most recent meeting: Sebastian Ofner won at Thionville Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Gaston | Ofner | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hugo Gaston | Sebastian Ofner | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 21/32 | 76% | 22/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 9/23 | 45% | 10/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/55 | 33% | 17/51 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 16/34 | 61% | 20/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 12/20 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 61% | 11/18 | 55% | 11/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 24/29 | 83% | 24/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 21/29 | 76% | 22/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Gaston 1, Ofner 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Gaston
🪃 Counterpuncher
Ofner
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Mar 7, 2026
Thionville Challenger
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 16, 2026
Lille Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Apr 23, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 1st Round
May 12, 2023
Mauthausen Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Sep 8, 2021
Tulln Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 28, 2020
Hamburg Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Gaston | Ofner | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Hugo Gaston | Sebastian Ofner | ||
| 1 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 31% | 4/13 | 71% | 5/7 |
| 5 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 29% | 2/7 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Gaston | Ofner |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–7 | 2–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.43 | 2.04 |
| ROI % | -2.1% | -56.4% |
| Units P/L | -0.30u | -4.51u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Gaston | Ofner |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 103 mi · 165 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ofner has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Gaston's 25%).
| Opponent | Gaston | Ofner |
|---|---|---|
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | W 57 76 75 | L 57 26 |
| Felix Gill | L 67 76 26 | W 64 62 |
| Luca Van Assche | L 46 46 | L 62 26 36 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | L 26 63 46 | W 67 63 76 |
| Jannik Sinner | L | L 36 46 |
| Timofey Skatov | W 76 76 | W 63 64 |
| Pierre-Hugues Herbert | L 57 26 | W 64 76 |
| Nishesh Basavareddy | L 46 16 | L 64 46 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Liam Draxl
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Jaime Faria
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Sho Shimabukuro
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Colton Smith
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Andre Ilagan
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Guido Ivan Justo
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Seville Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Alexander Ritschard
Seville Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Felix Gill
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Edas Butvilas
Manacor Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Kei Nishikori
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Roman Safiullin
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Jacob Fearnley
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 54–60 matches
| Metric | Gaston | Ofner |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 56% |
| Sets won | 54% | 55% |
| Games won | 51% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Gaston | Ofner |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 3 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Gaston | Ofner |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 1 | 2 |
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