Hubert Hurkacz vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Hubert Hurkacz and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 4 times since 2015; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Szczecin in 2015 on clay. On hard courts Busta leads 2–1. 2 of their meetings have been finals, split 1–1. Across all meetings Hurkacz has taken 4 sets to Busta's 6. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at National Bank Open - Montreal (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Hurkacz | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hubert Hurkacz | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 63% | 12/19 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 8/15 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 44% | 15/34 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 9/24 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 80% | 8/10 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 11/21 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 73% | 16/22 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 55% | 12/22 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Hurkacz 1, Carreno Busta 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Hurkacz
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 767 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 14, 2022
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · Final
Sep 26, 2021
Moselle Open - Metz
H Hard · Final
Aug 19, 2021
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Sep 11, 2015
Szczecin
C Clay · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Hurkacz | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Hubert Hurkacz | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 47% | 7/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 7% | 1/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Hurkacz | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–4 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.52 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | +11.4% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | +1.71u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Hurkacz | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 9 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,959 mi · 3,153 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA → MEX | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Hurkacz's 50%).
| Opponent | Hurkacz | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Baez | W 46 60 63 | W 57 75 75 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 63 62 | L 67 16 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 63 67 57 | W 63 62 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 76 | L 26 16 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | L 63 76 67 57 24 | W 64 76 |
| Sebastian Ofner | W 76 64 64 | W 36 63 64 |
| Marton Fucsovics | L 63 67 67 | W 46 76 62 |
| Martin Damm | L 67 46 | W 63 63 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 46 63 64 | L 36 46 |
| Mattia Bellucci | L 26 46 | W 64 26 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sebastian Baez
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Moez Echargui
Cancun Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 23
Roman Safiullin
Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Henrique Rocha
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Tommy Paul
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Sho Shimabukuro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Botic van de Zandschulp
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Alejandro Tabilo
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–65 matches
| Metric | Hurkacz | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 65% |
| Sets won | 57% | 60% |
| Games won | 53% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Hurkacz | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Hurkacz | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.