Hubert Hurkacz vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Hubert Hurkacz and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 4 times since 2015; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Szczecin in 2015 on clay. On hard courts Busta leads 2–1. 2 of their meetings have been finals, split 1–1. Across all meetings Hurkacz has taken 4 sets to Busta's 6. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at National Bank Open - Montreal (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Hurkacz | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hubert Hurkacz | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 17/29 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 8/16 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 44% | 20/45 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 12/32 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 85% | 11/13 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 16/29 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 23/29 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 59% | 17/29 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Hurkacz 1, Carreno Busta 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Hurkacz
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,115 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Hubert Hurkacz.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 14, 2022
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · Final
Sep 26, 2021
Moselle Open - Metz
H Hard · Final
Aug 19, 2021
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Sep 11, 2015
Szczecin
C Clay · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Hurkacz | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Hubert Hurkacz | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 23/23 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 23/23 | 54% | 7/13 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 23/23 | 23% | 3/13 |
| 10 or more | 83% | 19/23 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 26% | 6/23 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/23 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Hurkacz | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 18–5 | 6–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.66 | 2.41 |
| ROI % | +21.1% | -16.8% |
| Units P/L | +4.85u | -2.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Hurkacz | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 12 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Hurkacz's 70%).
| Opponent | Hurkacz | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Yi Zhou | W 62 36 63 | W 75 63 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 76 | W 46 76 64 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L 46 67 | L 36 36 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 67 63 63 | W 63 76 |
| Martin Damm | W 46 63 64 | W 63 63 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 46 60 63 | W 57 75 75 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 63 62 | L 67 16 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 63 67 57 | W 63 62 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | L 63 76 67 57 24 | W 64 76 |
| Sebastian Ofner | W 76 64 64 | W 36 63 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
James Duckworth
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Alex de Minaur
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Karen Khachanov
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Arthur Gea
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Learner Tien
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Final
Sep 29
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–58 matches
| Metric | Hurkacz | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 62% |
| Sets won | 60% | 58% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Hurkacz | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Hurkacz | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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