Henrique Rocha vs Sumit NagalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Maia Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Clay
- Date & time
- October 12 · 9:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 3.48 or longer, Sumit Nagal has won 4 of 34 (12%). The price implied 22%, so Sumit Nagal has fallen 10 points short of it.
At 1.29 or shorter, Henrique Rocha has won 17 of 23 (74%). The price implied 78%, so Henrique Rocha has fallen 4 points short of it.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Sumit Nagal meets Henrique Rocha in the 1st Round of the Maia Challenger on October 12 on clay. Nagal, ranked 253, arrives after a five-match losing streak and has won just three of his last ten matches. Rocha sits at 106 in the rankings and comes in on a four-match winning run with a 70% win rate over his last ten.
The two have never played each other. Rocha has beaten common opponents Marcos Giron and Enrico Dalla Valle, while Nagal lost to Giron but posted wins over both men in other meetings. On clay, Henrique Rocha has won 60% of his matches in the sample period; Sumit Nagal has won 55%.
Nagal operates as a counterpuncher who works best when opponents come at him hard. Rocha plays an aggressive, physical game built to wear down opponents and control points. The surface suits both players reasonably well, but Rocha's current form differs markedly from Nagal's recent struggles. The match asks Nagal to find rhythm quickly after extended losing, while Rocha must sustain the momentum that has defined his recent stretch.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rocha | Nagal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Henrique Rocha | Sumit Nagal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 76% | 31/41 | 68% | 15/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 12/27 | 46% | 13/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 22/68 | 40% | 20/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 46% | 22/48 | 24% | 6/25 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 75% | 12/16 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 15/26 | 36% | 5/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 37/42 | 70% | 19/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 31/42 | 56% | 15/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rocha
⚔️ The Gladiator
Nagal
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 53% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 2,464 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Sumit Nagal.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Rocha and Nagal have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rocha | Nagal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Henrique Rocha | Sumit Nagal | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 3 or more | 83% | 10/12 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 5 or more | 17% | 2/12 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rocha | Nagal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–6 | 4–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.83 | 2.31 |
| ROI % | -11.8% | -40.3% |
| Units P/L | -1.77u | -4.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rocha | Nagal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | POR | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 8 shared opponents, both Rocha and Nagal posted a 88% win rate.
| Opponent | Rocha | Nagal |
|---|---|---|
| Inaki Montes-De La Torre | W 26 64 64 | W 63 63 |
| Mili Poljicak | W 62 60 | W 64 36 75 |
| Cezar Cretu | W 75 63 | W 62 64 |
| Marcos Giron | W 64 76 | L 36 26 |
| Duje Ajdukovic | L 76 67 46 | W 36 75 64 |
| Enrico Dalla Valle | W 64 76 | W 62 46 62 |
| David Jorda Sanchis | W 63 62 | W 63 75 |
| Rio Noguchi | W 75 46 63 | W 61 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Inaki Montes-De La Torre
Porto Challenger · Final
Oct 4
August Holmgren
Porto Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Mili Poljicak
Porto Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Cezar Cretu
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dusan Lajovic
Seville Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Santiago Rodriguez Taverna
Seville Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Carlos Taberner
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Lloyd Harris
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 27
Luka Mikrut
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Soon Woo Kwon
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, KOR-IND · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Hyeon Chung
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, KOR-IND · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Arthur Gea
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jan Kumstat
Prague Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 19
Eduardo Ribeiro
Prague Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 17
Max Houkes
Hamburg Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 11
Jan Kumstat
Liberec Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 1
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–68 matches
| Metric | Rocha | Nagal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 44% |
| Sets won | 59% | 48% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |