Hayato Matsuoka vs Qian SunPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Hayato Matsuoka and Qian Sun have met 3 times since 2025; Hayato Matsuoka leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at M25 Qian Daohu 1 in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Matsuoka leads 3–0. Matsuoka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Matsuoka has taken 6 sets to Sun's 2. Their most recent meeting: Hayato Matsuoka won at Jinan Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Matsuoka | Sun | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hayato Matsuoka | Qian Sun | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 36/50 | 50% | 12/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 11/31 | 40% | 10/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 25/81 | 45% | 22/49 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 26/47 | 18% | 3/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 53% | 16/30 | 69% | 18/26 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 40% | 10/25 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 39/47 | 70% | 16/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 77% | 36/47 | 52% | 12/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Matsuoka 1, Sun 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Matsuoka
🏹 Frontrunner
Sun
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,017 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 11, 2026
Jinan Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
May 3, 2026
Wuxi Open
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 30, 2025
M25 Qian Daohu 1
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Matsuoka | Sun | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Hayato Matsuoka | Qian Sun | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 14/16 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 63% | 10/16 | 75% | 12/16 |
| 5 or more | 38% | 6/16 | 56% | 9/16 |
| 10 or more | 13% | 2/16 | 6% | 1/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Matsuoka | Sun |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–6 | 7–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.06 | 2.40 |
| ROI % | +15.1% | -8.6% |
| Units P/L | +2.71u | -1.38u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Matsuoka | Sun |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 3 | — |
| Distance | 651 mi · 1,048 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
James McCabe
Jinan Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 12
Qian Sun
Jinan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Taro Daniel
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Arthur Weber
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Lloyd Harris
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Jake Delaney
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Enzo Aguiard
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Aziz Dougaz
Astana Challenger · Final
Aug 16
Hayato Matsuoka
Jinan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Nino Ehrenschneider
M25 Luan · 1st Round
Oct 7
Alibek Kachmazov
M25 Guiyang · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Lachlan Vickery
M25 Guiyang · 1st Round
Sep 16
Yuta Tomida
M15 Wuning · Final
Sep 6
Colin Sinclair
M15 Wuning · Semifinals
Sep 5
Miles Jones
M15 Wuning · Quarterfinals
Sep 4
Hiromasa Koyama
M15 Wuning · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–81 matches
| Metric | Matsuoka | Sun |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 49% |
| Sets won | 59% | 48% |
| Games won | 52% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Matsuoka | Sun |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 0 |
| ITF M25 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Matsuoka | Sun |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
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