Fajing Sun vs Hayato MatsuokaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Fajing Sun and Hayato Matsuoka have met 3 times since 2025; Fajing Sun leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at M25 Qian Daohu 1 in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Sun leads 2–1. Across all meetings Sun has taken 4 sets to Matsuoka's 4. Their most recent meeting: Hayato Matsuoka won at Astana Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sun | Matsuoka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Fajing Sun | Hayato Matsuoka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 24/36 | 72% | 36/50 |
| Wins a set when losing | 34% | 11/32 | 35% | 11/31 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 23/68 | 31% | 25/81 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 17/31 | 55% | 26/47 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 15/32 | 53% | 16/30 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 39% | 9/23 | 40% | 10/25 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 28/32 | 83% | 39/47 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 24/32 | 77% | 36/47 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sun 0, Matsuoka 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sun
🏹 Frontrunner
Matsuoka
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
Both Fajing Sun and Hayato Matsuoka are 🏹 Frontrunner types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 280 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 14, 2026
Astana Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jan 6, 2026
Nonthaburi 1 Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 31, 2025
M25 Qian Daohu 1
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sun | Matsuoka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Fajing Sun | Hayato Matsuoka | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 18/19 | 88% | 14/16 |
| 3 or more | 68% | 13/19 | 63% | 10/16 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 9/19 | 38% | 6/16 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 13% | 2/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sun | Matsuoka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–9 | 12–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.09 | 2.06 |
| ROI % | -9.8% | +15.1% |
| Units P/L | -1.77u | +2.71u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sun | Matsuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,078 mi · 1,735 km | 651 mi · 1,048 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sun has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Matsuoka's 60%).
| Opponent | Sun | Matsuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Kasidit Samrej | W 64 75 | W 46 75 75 |
| Bernard Tomic | L 46 76 36 | W 76 76 |
| Matthew Dellavedova | W 36 61 76 | W 63 61 |
| Tung-Lin Wu | W 67 64 76 | L 36 67 |
| Takuya Kumasaka | W 62 62 | W 64 61 |
| Koki Matsuda | W 63 64 | W 63 64 |
| Masamichi Imamura | W 36 63 64 | L 46 57 |
| Maximus Jones | L 26 16 | L 46 46 |
| Ognjen Milic | W 64 61 | W 64 57 64 |
| Tristan Schoolkate | W 76 62 | L 06 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alibek Kachmazov
Wuning 3 Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Kasidit Samrej
Wuning 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 8
Aoran Wang
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Bernard Tomic
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Bernard Tomic
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Matthew Dellavedova
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Alexander Binda
Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 17
James McCabe
Jinan Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 12
Qian Sun
Jinan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Taro Daniel
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Arthur Weber
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Lloyd Harris
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Jake Delaney
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Enzo Aguiard
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Aziz Dougaz
Astana Challenger · Final
Aug 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 68–81 matches
| Metric | Sun | Matsuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 53% | 62% |
| Sets won | 52% | 59% |
| Games won | 52% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sun | Matsuoka |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 1 |
| ITF M25 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sun | Matsuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
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