Hanyi Liu vs Ren NakamuraPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Shanghai Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round Qualifying
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- September 6 ยท 4:40 AM ET
Book odds
Record at prices like this
At 5.21 or longer, Ren Nakamura has won 0 of 13 (0%). The price implied 12%, so Ren Nakamura has fallen 12 points short of it.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Hanyi Liu takes on Ren Nakamura in first round qualifying at the Shanghai Challenger on September 6, a hard court event that will test both players' consistency over short rallies. Liu, ranked 912th, brings steadier recent form into the matchup, while Nakamura sits at 1689th and arrives on a two-match losing streak. The two have no previous head-to-head record.
Liu has won two of three meetings against common opponents, defeating both Ryota Tanuma and Yuta Kawahashi where Nakamura faltered. Over their last 10 matches, Liu holds a 60% win rate on hard courts against Nakamura's 50%, though both players have struggled over the past five matches with identical 40% records. Liu's current form dipped with a loss four days ago after a relatively active stretch of four matches in two weeks.
Nakamura grinds from the baseline and relies on volume to wear opponents down, a style that demands extended rallies and patience. Liu plays a more reactive game, waiting for openings to redirect pace and dictate from the back of the court. On a fast hard court, Liu's counter-attacking approach may find more opportunities in shorter points, while Nakamura will need to construct length and force extended exchanges to impose his rhythm.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches ยท Last 12 months
| Indicator | Liu | Nakamura | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hanyi Liu | Ren Nakamura | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 77% | 17/22 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 5/18 | 6% | 1/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 10/40 | 16% | 4/25 |
| Covers โ1.5 sets as favorite | 80% | 8/10 | 100% | 2/2 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 55% | 12/22 | 13% | 2/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 5/10 | 50% | 2/4 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 17/21 | 89% | 8/9 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 81% | 17/21 | 67% | 6/9 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Liu
๐ช Counterpuncher
Nakamura
โ๏ธ Grinder
Matchup analysis
๐ช Counterpuncher vs โ๏ธ Grinder is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 849 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Liu and Nakamura have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets ยท Last 90 days
| Outcome | Liu | Nakamura | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Hanyi Liu | Ren Nakamura | ||
| 1 or more | 64% | 7/11 | 75% | 3/4 |
| 3 or more | 46% | 5/11 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 5 or more | 18% | 2/11 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 10 or more | 9% | 1/11 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/4 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches ยท Last 90 days
| Metric | Liu | Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7โ3 | 3โ6 |
| Avg odds | 2.23 | 4.86 |
| ROI % | +16.8% | -17.6% |
| Units P/L | +1.68u | -1.58u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Liu | Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | โ | โ |
| Route | CHN | TPE โ INA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced ยท Last 12 months
Across 2 shared opponents, both Liu and Nakamura posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Liu | Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Zi Hui Chen | W 64 63 | W 60 60 |
| Koki Matsuda | L 26 46 | L 46 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Fajing Sun
Zhangjiagang Challenger ยท 2nd Round
Sep 2
Kaichi Uchida
Zhangjiagang Challenger ยท 1st Round
Aug 31
Chase Ferguson
M15 Maanshan ยท 2nd Round
Aug 27
Xing Dao Chen
M15 Maanshan ยท 1st Round
Aug 26
Hoyoung Roh
M15 Wuning ยท Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Jia Hu
M15 Wuning ยท 2nd Round
Jul 9
Kosuke Shibano
M15 Wuning ยท 1st Round
Jul 8
Zhao Zhao
M15 Wuning ยท 2nd Round
Jul 2
Azuma Visaya
M15 Bali ยท 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
Kristjan Tamm
M25 Taipei ยท 1st Round
Aug 26
Aniketh Venkataraman
M25 Taipei ยท 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 23
Ryuki Matsuda
M25 Taipei ยท 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 17
Aditya Kothari
M25 Taipei ยท 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 16
Corban Crowther
M15 Bali ยท 3rd Round Qualifying
Jul 27
Diordan Macababbad
M15 Bali ยท 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 26
Keisuke Saitoh
M15 Bali ยท 1st Round
Jul 22
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won ยท Last 12 months ยท 25โ40 matches
| Metric | Liu | Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 55% | 36% |
| Sets won | 54% | 35% |
| Games won | 52% | 46% |