Chase Ferguson vs Hanyi LiuPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Chase Ferguson and Hanyi Liu have met 4 times since 2025; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at M25 Huzhou 1 in 2025 on hard. On hard courts they are level 2–2. Across all meetings Ferguson has taken 5 sets to Liu's 4. Their most recent meeting: Chase Ferguson won at M15 Maanshan (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ferguson | Liu | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Chase Ferguson | Hanyi Liu | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 25/45 | 79% | 19/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 25% | 7/28 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 27/73 | 25% | 10/40 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 14/33 | 82% | 9/11 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 59% | 20/34 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 78% | 14/18 | 56% | 5/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 39/41 | 83% | 19/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 25/41 | 83% | 19/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ferguson 2, Liu 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ferguson
🎾 All-Court
Liu
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
🎾 All-Court vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 878 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 27, 2026
M15 Maanshan
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 9, 2026
M15 Maanshan
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 25, 2026
M15 Maanshan 4
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 24, 2025
M25 Huzhou 1
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ferguson | Liu | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Chase Ferguson | Hanyi Liu | ||
| 1 or more | 77% | 17/22 | 78% | 7/9 |
| 3 or more | 41% | 9/22 | 67% | 6/9 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/22 | 33% | 3/9 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/22 | 11% | 1/9 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/22 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/22 | 0% | 0/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ferguson | Liu |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–9 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.15 | 3.07 |
| ROI % | -3.0% | -17.4% |
| Units P/L | -0.65u | -1.39u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ferguson | Liu |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 7 shared opponents, both Ferguson and Liu posted a 29% win rate.
| Opponent | Ferguson | Liu |
|---|---|---|
| Fajing Sun | W 64 46 62 | L 06 57 |
| Jake Delaney | L 26 76 67 | L |
| Yuta Kawahashi | L 36 46 | W 64 63 |
| Kokoro Isomura | L 36 36 | L |
| Matthew Dellavedova | L | L 16 26 |
| Ye Cong Mo | L 76 67 16 | L 16 16 |
| Kohshi Ishibashi | W 64 76 | W 64 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Omar Jasika
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Alibek Kachmazov
M25 Yinchuan · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Nino Ehrenschneider
M25 Yinchuan · 1st Round
Sep 23
Yunseong Chung
M25 Guiyang · Semifinals
Sep 19
Sheng Tang
M25 Guiyang · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Zhenxiong Dong
M25 Guiyang · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Minghui Zhang
M25 Guiyang · 1st Round
Sep 16
Jerry Roddick
M25 Sapporo · Semifinals
Sep 12
Evan Zhu
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 30
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
Guangzhou Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 14
Yaroslav Demin
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 13
Denis Yevseyev
Shanghai Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 7
Ren Nakamura
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 6
Fajing Sun
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Kaichi Uchida
Zhangjiagang Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 31
Chase Ferguson
M15 Maanshan · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 40–73 matches
| Metric | Ferguson | Liu |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 60% |
| Sets won | 56% | 59% |
| Games won | 51% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ferguson | Liu |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M15 | 1 | 2 |
| ITF M25 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ferguson | Liu |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |
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