Chase Ferguson vs Hanyi LiuPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Chase Ferguson and Hanyi Liu have met 4 times since 2025; they are level 2–2. Their first meeting came at M25 Huzhou 1 in 2025 on hard. On hard courts they are level 2–2. Across all meetings Ferguson has taken 5 sets to Liu's 4. Their most recent meeting: Chase Ferguson won at M15 Maanshan (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ferguson | Liu | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Chase Ferguson | Hanyi Liu | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 25/44 | 79% | 15/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 7/25 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 26/69 | 22% | 8/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 39% | 12/31 | 78% | 7/9 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 61% | 17/28 | 55% | 11/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 76% | 13/17 | 44% | 4/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 41/43 | 79% | 15/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 58% | 25/43 | 79% | 15/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ferguson 2, Liu 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ferguson
🛡️ The Spoiler
Liu
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 53% vs 🛡️ The Spoiler across 407 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Hanyi Liu.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the spoiler's strong court coverage.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 27, 2026
M15 Maanshan
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 9, 2026
M15 Maanshan
H Hard · 1st Round
Mar 25, 2026
M15 Maanshan 4
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 24, 2025
M25 Huzhou 1
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ferguson | Liu | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Chase Ferguson | Hanyi Liu | ||
| 1 or more | 71% | 10/14 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 3 or more | 21% | 3/14 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ferguson | Liu |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–8 | 11–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.29 | 2.00 |
| ROI % | -15.8% | +35.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.69u | +4.60u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ferguson | Liu |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 5 | 2 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Liu has a higher win rate against shared opponents (40% vs Ferguson's 20%).
| Opponent | Ferguson | Liu |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Delaney | L 26 76 67 | L 62 67 02 |
| Fitriadi M Rifqi | L 57 26 | W 62 61 |
| Yuta Kawahashi | L 36 46 | W 64 63 |
| Ye Cong Mo | L 76 67 16 | L 16 16 |
| Masamichi Imamura | W 61 60 | L 46 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rigele Te
M15 Maanshan · Semifinals
Aug 29
Fumin Jiang
M15 Maanshan · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Hanyi Liu
M15 Maanshan · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Yua Taka
M15 Maanshan · 1st Round
Aug 26
Yunseong Chung
M15 Maanshan · 1st Round
Aug 19
Duje Markovina
M15 Brisbane · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Derek Pham
M15 Brisbane · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Scott Jones
M15 Brisbane · 1st Round
Jul 21
Chase Ferguson
M15 Maanshan · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Xing Dao Chen
M15 Maanshan · 1st Round
Aug 26
Hoyoung Roh
M15 Wuning · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Jia Hu
M15 Wuning · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Kosuke Shibano
M15 Wuning · 1st Round
Jul 8
Zhao Zhao
M15 Wuning · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Yuta Kawahashi
M15 Wuning · 1st Round
Jun 30
Artem Alekseychuk
M15 Maanshan · 2nd Round
Jun 11
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 36–69 matches
| Metric | Ferguson | Liu |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 53% |
| Sets won | 58% | 53% |
| Games won | 52% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ferguson | Liu |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M15 | 1 | 2 |
| ITF M25 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ferguson | Liu |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 2 |
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