Elias Ymer vs Thai-Son KwiatkowskiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Elias Ymer and Thai-Son Kwiatkowski have met 1 time since 2026; Thai-Son Kwiatkowski leads 1–0. Their most recent meeting: Thai-Son Kwiatkowski won at Phoenix Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ymer | Kwiatkowski | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elias Ymer | Thai-Son Kwiatkowski | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 15/28 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 10/26 | 25% | 1/4 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 43% | 23/54 | 25% | 1/4 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 9/21 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 53% | 16/30 | 33% | 1/3 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 16/28 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 24/28 | 0% | 0/1 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 54% | 15/28 | 0% | 0/1 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ymer
💥 Big Hitter
Kwiatkowski
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Elias Ymer.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Mar 9, 2026
Phoenix Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ymer | Kwiatkowski |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–9 | - |
| Avg odds | 2.40 | - |
| ROI % | -55.8% | - |
| Units P/L | -7.25u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ymer | Kwiatkowski |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 4 | — |
| Matches | 6 | — |
| Distance | 1,797 mi · 2,892 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 1 shared opponent, both Ymer and Kwiatkowski posted a 0% win rate.
| Opponent | Ymer | Kwiatkowski |
|---|---|---|
| Sho Shimabukuro | L 36 36 | L 06 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Mattia Bellucci
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Federico Cina
Jingshan Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Terence Atmane
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 30
Alexis Galarneau
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Marat Sharipov
Guangzhou Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Luca Castelnuovo
Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Semen Pankin
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 14
Pavel Kotov
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Novak Novakovic
M15 Columbia · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 21
Blaise Bicknell
Arizona Tennis Classic · 2nd Round Qualifying
Mar 10
Elias Ymer
Phoenix Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Mar 9
Sho Shimabukuro
Nexo Dallas Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Feb 7
Patrick Zahraj
Charlottesville Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 27
Alex Rybakov
Winston-Salem Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 9
Karl Poling
Winston-Salem · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 16
Murphy Cassone
Washington · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 19
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 4–55 matches
| Metric | Ymer | Kwiatkowski |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 0% |
| Sets won | 50% | 11% |
| Games won | 49% | 37% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ymer | Kwiatkowski |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ymer | Kwiatkowski |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
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