Elias Ymer vs Luca CastelnuovoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Elias Ymer and Luca Castelnuovo have met 1 time since 2026; Elias Ymer leads 1–0. Across all meetings Ymer has taken 2 sets to Castelnuovo's 0. Their most recent meeting: Elias Ymer won at Guangzhou Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ymer | Castelnuovo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elias Ymer | Luca Castelnuovo | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 15/28 | 83% | 24/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 10/26 | 33% | 8/24 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 43% | 23/54 | 25% | 13/53 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 9/21 | 63% | 15/24 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 53% | 16/30 | 55% | 12/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 16/28 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 24/28 | 90% | 26/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 54% | 15/28 | 83% | 24/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ymer 1, Castelnuovo 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ymer
💥 Big Hitter
Castelnuovo
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Elias Ymer and Luca Castelnuovo are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,120 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 16, 2026
Guangzhou Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ymer | Castelnuovo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elias Ymer | Luca Castelnuovo | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 100% | 14/14 |
| 3 or more | 93% | 13/14 | 100% | 14/14 |
| 5 or more | 64% | 9/14 | 93% | 13/14 |
| 10 or more | 14% | 2/14 | 50% | 7/14 |
| 15 or more | 7% | 1/14 | 21% | 3/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ymer | Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–9 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.40 | 2.55 |
| ROI % | -55.8% | +45.9% |
| Units P/L | -7.25u | +6.43u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ymer | Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 4 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,797 mi · 2,892 km | 765 mi · 1,231 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ymer has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Castelnuovo's 0%).
| Opponent | Ymer | Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| Pavel Kotov | L 63 36 67 | L 76 57 57 |
| Semen Pankin | W 57 75 63 | L 57 46 |
| Jurij Rodionov | W 64 36 62 | L 16 46 |
| Coleman Wong | W 63 36 76 | L 46 64 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Mattia Bellucci
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Federico Cina
Jingshan Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Terence Atmane
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 30
Alexis Galarneau
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Marat Sharipov
Guangzhou Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Luca Castelnuovo
Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Semen Pankin
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 14
Pavel Kotov
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Akira Santillan
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 5
Pavel Kotov
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Elias Ymer
Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
Omar Jasika
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Ilya Ivashka
Shanghai Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 12
Ji Sung Nam
Shanghai Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Tung-Lin Wu
Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Chun-Hsin Tseng
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–55 matches
| Metric | Ymer | Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 55% |
| Sets won | 50% | 55% |
| Games won | 49% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ymer | Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ymer | Castelnuovo |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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