Diogo Marques vs Lucas PoullainPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Diogo Marques and Lucas Poullain have met 3 times since 2024; Lucas Poullain leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Porto in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Poullain leads 3–0. Poullain has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Marques has taken 0 sets to Poullain's 6. Their most recent meeting: Lucas Poullain won at M25 Porto 1 (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Marques | Poullain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Diogo Marques | Lucas Poullain | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 5/7 | 69% | 29/42 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 9/18 | 23% | 6/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 44% | 11/25 | 28% | 19/68 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 67% | 2/3 | 59% | 26/44 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 9/16 | 55% | 12/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 7/10 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 45% | 5/11 | 91% | 32/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 45% | 5/11 | 83% | 29/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Marques 0, Poullain 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Marques
🎯 Baseliner
Poullain
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 54% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 354 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Diogo Marques.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jul 24, 2025
M25 Porto 1
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 15, 2025
M25 Castelo Branco 1
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 28, 2024
Porto
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Marques | Poullain | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Diogo Marques | Lucas Poullain | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 90% | 17/19 |
| 3 or more | 50% | 4/8 | 53% | 10/19 |
| 5 or more | 38% | 3/8 | 11% | 2/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Marques | Poullain |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–4 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 4.72 | 2.17 |
| ROI % | -9.6% | +40.6% |
| Units P/L | -0.58u | +7.71u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Marques | Poullain |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 5 |
| Distance | — | 98 mi · 158 km |
| Route | — | FRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Poullain has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Marques's 25%).
| Opponent | Marques | Poullain |
|---|---|---|
| Xavi Palomar | W 26 63 62 | W 61 62 |
| Gilles Arnaud Bailly | L 67 57 | L 57 26 |
| Rafael Izquierdo Luque | L 46 36 | W |
| Joao Domingues | L 62 06 26 | W 61 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Oleksii Krutykh
Maia Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Sergio Callejon Hernando
M15 Pontevedra · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Xavi Palomar
M15 Pontevedra · 2nd Round
Oct 8
Oscar Weightman
M15 Pontevedra · 1st Round
Oct 7
Pedro Anton Ruibal
M15 Pontevedra · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Federico Cabrera Perez
M15 Pontevedra · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 4
Finn Murgett
M25 Setubal · 1st Round
Sep 23
Lourenco Correia
M25 Sintra · 2nd Round Qualifying
Sep 14
Gijs Brouwer
Roanne Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Joel Schwaerzler
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Remy Bertola
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 30
Mark Lajal
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Diogo Morais
M25 Setubal · 1st Round
Sep 23
Clement Chidekh
Rennes Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
David Jorda Sanchis
Rennes Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 14
Moez Echargui
Cassis Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 25–68 matches
| Metric | Marques | Poullain |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 28% | 62% |
| Sets won | 38% | 58% |
| Games won | 45% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Marques | Poullain |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M25 | 0 | 2 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Marques | Poullain |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
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