Lucas Poullain vs Tom ParisPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Lucas Poullain and Tom Paris have met 3 times since 2023; Lucas Poullain leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Orleans in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Poullain leads 2–1. Across all meetings Poullain has taken 4 sets to Paris's 3. Their most recent meeting: Lucas Poullain won at Cherbourg Challenger (2026).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Roanne Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 3rd Round Qualifying
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 12 · 4:40 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.41 or shorter, Lucas Poullain has won 22 of 33 (67%). The price implied 74%, so Lucas Poullain has fallen 7 points short of it.
At 2.71 or longer, Tom Paris has won 3 of 15 (20%). The price implied 28%, so Tom Paris has fallen 8 points short of it.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Tom Paris meets Lucas Poullain in the 3rd Round Qualifying of the Roanne Challenger on October 12 on hard court. Paris ranks 676th in the world; Poullain sits 322nd. Both players won their most recent matches within the last day.
Poullain leads the head-to-head series 2-1 over Paris. The pair have faced three common opponents recently. Poullain defeated Dan Added, Ilia Simakin, and Mark Lajal in that stretch, while Paris lost to all three. Paris did beat Yanis Ghazouani Durand when Poullain lost to the same opponent. On hard court over a recent sample, Poullain has won 13 of 20 matches (65%); Paris has won 8 of 20 (40%).
Paris relies on power from the baseline and tends to dictate through pace and depth. Poullain is a counterpuncher who builds points through consistency and court movement. Over the last five matches, Paris has won two; Poullain has won three. The match asks Paris to trust his aggression while limiting unforced errors, and asks Poullain to stay composed and break down Paris's heavy hitting through patience and footwork.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Poullain | Paris | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Lucas Poullain | Tom Paris | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 29/42 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Wins a set when losing | 23% | 6/26 | 42% | 5/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 28% | 19/68 | 44% | 11/25 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 26/44 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 55% | 12/22 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 56% | 10/18 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 91% | 32/35 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 83% | 29/35 | 50% | 7/14 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Poullain 1, Paris 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Poullain
⚔️ The Gladiator
Paris
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 1,349 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Tom Paris.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Mar 10, 2026
Cherbourg Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Feb 6, 2025
Lille Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 24, 2023
Orleans
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Poullain | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 1–1 |
| Avg odds | 2.17 | 2.17 |
| ROI % | +40.6% | +6.5% |
| Units P/L | +7.71u | +0.13u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Poullain | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 1 |
| Distance | 98 mi · 158 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | FRA | FRA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Poullain has a higher win rate against shared opponents (57% vs Paris's 43%).
| Opponent | Poullain | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Yanis Ghazouani Durand | L 26 46 | W 36 62 64 |
| Moez Echargui | L 46 26 | L 64 46 67 |
| Ilia Simakin | W 57 62 63 | L 76 36 46 |
| Raphael Perot | L 46 36 | L 16 00 |
| Kenny De Schepper | W 76 46 62 | W 75 75 |
| Robin Catry | W 63 63 | L 36 46 |
| Arthur Nagel | W 75 62 | W 76 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Gijs Brouwer
Roanne Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Joel Schwaerzler
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Remy Bertola
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 30
Mark Lajal
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Diogo Morais
M25 Setubal · 1st Round
Sep 23
Clement Chidekh
Rennes Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 16
David Jorda Sanchis
Rennes Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 14
Moez Echargui
Cassis Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Yanis Ghazouani Durand
Roanne Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Niels Visker
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 27
Lukas Pokorny
Kosice Challenger · 1st Round
May 25
Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg
Open Aix Provence Crédit Agricole · 2nd Round Qualifying
Apr 28
Laurent Lokoli
Open Aix Provence Crédit Agricole · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 27
Laurent Lokoli
Aix En Provence Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 27
Tung-Lin Wu
Gwangju Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Apr 20
Yunseong Chung
Gwangju Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 26–68 matches
| Metric | Poullain | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 50% |
| Sets won | 58% | 50% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Poullain | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Poullain | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |