Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo YamanakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Chase Ferguson and Taiyo Yamanaka have met 2 times since 2026; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at M15 Maanshan in 2026 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Ferguson has taken 3 sets to Yamanaka's 3. Their most recent meeting: Chase Ferguson won at M15 Wuning (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ferguson | Yamanaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Chase Ferguson | Taiyo Yamanaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 25/44 | 63% | 15/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 7/25 | 38% | 10/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 26/69 | 38% | 19/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 39% | 12/31 | 55% | 12/22 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 61% | 17/28 | 58% | 15/26 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 76% | 13/17 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 41/43 | 74% | 20/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 58% | 25/43 | 56% | 15/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ferguson 0, Yamanaka 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ferguson
🛡️ The Spoiler
Yamanaka
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
🛡️ The Spoiler vs ⚙️ Grinder is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 173 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jun 24, 2026
M15 Wuning
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 16, 2026
M15 Maanshan
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ferguson | Yamanaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Chase Ferguson | Taiyo Yamanaka | ||
| 1 or more | 71% | 10/14 | 82% | 9/11 |
| 3 or more | 21% | 3/14 | 64% | 7/11 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 46% | 5/11 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 9% | 1/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ferguson | Yamanaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–8 | 5–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.29 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | -15.8% | -20.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.69u | -2.23u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ferguson | Yamanaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 3 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | CHN | KAZ → CHN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ferguson has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Yamanaka's 17%).
| Opponent | Ferguson | Yamanaka |
|---|---|---|
| Moerani Bouzige | L 46 64 36 | L 36 36 |
| Tomohiro Masabayashi | W 62 61 | W 62 61 |
| Fitriadi M Rifqi | L 26 26 | L 36 00 |
| Jamie Mackenzie | L 36 46 | L 63 06 46 |
| Maxim Shin | W 61 64 | L 63 46 26 |
| Hayato Matsuoka | W 76 62 | L 36 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rigele Te
M15 Maanshan · Semifinals
Aug 29
Fumin Jiang
M15 Maanshan · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Hanyi Liu
M15 Maanshan · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Yua Taka
M15 Maanshan · 1st Round
Aug 26
Yunseong Chung
M15 Maanshan · 1st Round
Aug 19
Duje Markovina
M15 Brisbane · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Derek Pham
M15 Brisbane · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Scott Jones
M15 Brisbane · 1st Round
Jul 21
Weiyi Kong
M15 Tianjin · 1st Round
Aug 11
Shunsuke Mitsui
M15 Astana · 2nd Round
Aug 7
Sergey Petrov
M15 Astana · 1st Round
Aug 6
Andrei Kunitsyn
M15 Astana · 1st Round
Jul 29
Matthew Dellavedova
M15 Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Hikaru Shiraishi
M15 Tokyo · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Ren Nakamura
M15 Tokyo · 1st Round
Jul 8
Moerani Bouzige
M15 Wuning · 1st Round
Jun 30
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–69 matches
| Metric | Ferguson | Yamanaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 47% |
| Sets won | 58% | 48% |
| Games won | 52% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ferguson | Yamanaka |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M15 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ferguson | Yamanaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
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