Carlos Maria Zarate vs Lorenzo GagliardoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇷Carlos Maria Zarate
#352 · 21 yrs · R
2 meetings · sets 4–0
🇮🇹Lorenzo Gagliardo
#851 · 26 yrs · R
6wCarlos Maria Zarate and Lorenzo Gagliardo have met 2 times since 2026; Carlos Maria Zarate leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at M15 San Salvador de Jujuy in 2026 on clay. Zarate has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Zarate leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Zarate has taken 4 sets to Gagliardo's 0. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Maria Zarate won at M15 Trelew (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Maria Zarate | Gagliardo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Maria Zarate | Lorenzo Gagliardo | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 38/55 | 80% | 20/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 8/29 | 43% | 9/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 25/84 | 30% | 14/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 13/26 | 60% | 15/25 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 68% | 13/19 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 17/27 | 25% | 2/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 47/50 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 38/50 | 77% | 20/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Maria Zarate 2, Gagliardo 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Zarate
🪃 Counterpuncher
Gagliardo
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 53% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 2,464 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Carlos Maria Zarate.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Sep 5, 2026
M15 Trelew
H Hard · Final
Jul 10, 2026
M15 San Salvador de Jujuy
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Zarate | Gagliardo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carlos Maria Zarate | Lorenzo Gagliardo | ||
| 1 or more | 96% | 21/22 | 40% | 4/10 |
| 3 or more | 41% | 9/22 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 5 or more | 9% | 2/22 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/22 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/22 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/22 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Zarate | Gagliardo |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.65 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | -10.0% | -11.6% |
| Units P/L | -1.40u | -1.16u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Zarate | Gagliardo |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 2 | — |
| Distance | 835 mi · 1,344 km | — |
| Route | ARG → BRA | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Zarate has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Gagliardo's 33%).
| Opponent | Zarate | Gagliardo |
|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | L 26 16 | L 16 36 |
| Valentino Grippo | W 63 62 | L 63 36 26 |
| Kaua Emanuel Pereira Dos Santos | W 63 60 | W 64 16 63 |
| Bastian Malla | W 26 63 63 | W 61 63 |
| Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi | L 26 61 46 | L 26 36 |
| Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | L 16 76 67 | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Curitiba Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
Buenos Aires Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Lorenzo Gagliardo
M15 Trelew · Final
Sep 5
Felix Corwin
M15 Trelew · Semifinals
Sep 4
Valentino Grippo
M15 Trelew · Quarterfinals
Sep 3
Giovanni Branchetti
M15 Trelew · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Nicolas Bruna
M15 Trelew · 1st Round
Sep 1
Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
M15 Mar Del Plata · Final
Aug 30
Carlos Maria Zarate
M15 Trelew · Final
Sep 5
Federico Aguilar Cardozo
M15 Trelew · Semifinals
Sep 4
Ivan Dreycopp
M15 Trelew · Quarterfinals
Sep 3
Vito Antonio Darderi
M15 Trelew · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Francisco Gay
M15 Trelew · 1st Round
Sep 1
Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
M15 Mar Del Plata · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Gonzalo Zeitune
M15 Mar Del Plata · 2nd Round
Aug 27
Nicolas Garcia Longo
M15 Mar Del Plata · 1st Round
Aug 25
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–85 matches
| Metric | Zarate | Gagliardo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 66% | 54% |
| Sets won | 61% | 56% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Zarate | Gagliardo |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ITF M15 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Zarate | Gagliardo |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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