Bernard Tomic vs Blake EllisPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Bernard Tomic and Blake Ellis have met 1 time since 2026; Blake Ellis leads 1–0. Across all meetings Tomic has taken 1 sets to Ellis's 2. Their most recent meeting: Blake Ellis won at Noumea Challenger (2026).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Brisbane 3 Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- November 8 · 10:30 PM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.49 or shorter, Bernard Tomic has won 29 of 42 (69%). That is level with the 69% the price implied.
At 2.50 or longer, Blake Ellis has won 13 of 40 (33%). The price implied 30%, so Blake Ellis has beaten it by 3 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Blake Ellis takes on Bernard Tomic in the first round of the Brisbane 3 Challenger on November 8 on hard court. Ellis, ranked 412, arrives with a 3-2 record over his last five matches after playing five times in fourteen days. Tomic, at 181, has not competed in 26 days and comes in on a two-match losing streak.
Ellis and Tomic have met once before, with Ellis taking that head-to-head. Both players have identical hard court records at 12-8 over their recent sample, and both have won 60% of those matches. Ellis has momentum in his pocket at 7-3 over ten matches; Tomic has maintained a 60% rate across ten but without recent match play to build rhythm.
Both players rely heavily on their serving as their primary offensive weapon. The match will test Ellis's ability to sustain form after his heavy schedule against Tomic, who will need to shake off the rust of his four-week layoff while competing against a man who has already beaten him once.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tomic | Ellis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Bernard Tomic | Blake Ellis | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 19/33 | 57% | 16/28 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 10/25 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 24/58 | 43% | 22/51 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 17/36 | 58% | 15/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 55% | 12/22 | 63% | 15/24 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 44% | 12/27 | 65% | 22/34 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 23/28 | 82% | 23/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 19/28 | 57% | 16/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tomic 0, Ellis 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tomic
🤖 Servebot
Ellis
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
Both Bernard Tomic and Blake Ellis are 🤖 Servebot types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 6,968 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jan 8, 2026
Noumea Challenger
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tomic | Ellis | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Bernard Tomic | Blake Ellis | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 83% | 15/18 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 12/18 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 39% | 7/18 | 47% | 7/15 |
| 15 or more | 6% | 1/18 | 20% | 3/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tomic | Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–6 | 10–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.76 | 1.98 |
| ROI % | +1.2% | -10.4% |
| Units P/L | +0.20u | -1.66u |
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tomic has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Ellis's 60%).
| Opponent | Tomic | Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| Philip Sekulic | L 63 67 46 | L 36 75 67 |
| Juan Alejandro Hernandez | W 61 60 | W 67 61 64 |
| Fajing Sun | W 64 67 63 | W 76 36 75 |
| James McCabe | W 76 64 | W 67 64 63 |
| Li Tu | W 64 75 | L 36 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Dane Sweeny
Jinan Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 13
Matteo Arnaldi
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Timofey Skatov
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Terence Atmane
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Yuta Shimizu
Jingshan Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Fajing Sun
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Fajing Sun
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Rigele Te
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Philip Sekulic
M25 Tamworth · Semifinals
Nov 1
Anton Shepp
M25 Tamworth · Quarterfinals
Oct 30
Harrison Satara
M25 Tamworth · 2nd Round
Oct 29
Pavle Marinkov
M25 Tamworth · 1st Round
Oct 28
Isaac Becroft
M25 Tamworth · Final
Oct 25
Stefan Vujic
M25 Tamworth · Semifinals
Oct 24
Herman Hoeyeraal
M25 Tamworth · Quarterfinals
Oct 24
Unknown Player
M25 Tamworth · 2nd Round
Oct 23
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–58 matches
| Metric | Tomic | Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 55% |
| Sets won | 54% | 53% |
| Games won | 51% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tomic | Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tomic | Ellis |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |