Axel Nefve vs Karl PolingPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Axel Nefve and Karl Poling have met 1 time since 2026; Karl Poling leads 1–0. Across all meetings Nefve has taken 0 sets to Poling's 2. Their most recent meeting: Karl Poling won at M25 East Lansing (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nefve | Poling | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Axel Nefve | Karl Poling | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 9/15 | 56% | 19/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 37% | 7/19 | 35% | 11/31 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 13/34 | 40% | 26/65 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 5/13 | 42% | 10/24 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 8/16 | 61% | 22/36 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 45% | 5/11 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 71% | 12/17 | 84% | 26/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 53% | 9/17 | 61% | 19/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nefve 0, Poling 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nefve
🧱 The Wall
Poling
🛡️ The Spoiler
Matchup analysis
🧱 The Wall vs 🛡️ The Spoiler is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 122 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 14, 2026
M25 East Lansing
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nefve | Poling | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Axel Nefve | Karl Poling | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 69% | 11/16 |
| 3 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 31% | 5/16 |
| 5 or more | 43% | 3/7 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nefve | Poling |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–4 | 14–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.89 | 2.35 |
| ROI % | +7.9% | +71.0% |
| Units P/L | +0.63u | +13.50u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nefve | Poling |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 6 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | USA | USA → JAM |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Nefve has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Poling's 25%).
| Opponent | Nefve | Poling |
|---|---|---|
| Henry Searle | L 26 46 | W 76 36 63 |
| Ryan Cozad | W 76 64 | L 57 46 |
| Joshua Sheehy | W 36 62 64 | L 67 67 |
| Benjamin Thomas George | L 60 16 36 | L 57 76 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Karl Poling
M25 East Lansing · Quarterfinals
Aug 14
Joshua Peck
M25 East Lansing · 2nd Round
Aug 13
Sebastian Gorzny
M25 East Lansing · 1st Round
Aug 12
Jerrid Gaines Jr
M15 Rochester · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Nathan Cox
M15 Rochester · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Matthew Thomson
M15 Rochester · 1st Round
Jul 15
J.J. Wolf
M25 Tulsa · 1st Round
Jun 16
Thanaphat Boosarawongse
Futures 2026
Jun 9
Thomas Fancutt
Kingston 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 25
Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
M25 East Lansing · Final
Aug 16
Nikita Filin
M25 East Lansing · Semifinals
Aug 15
Axel Nefve
M25 East Lansing · Quarterfinals
Aug 14
Thomas Fancutt
M25 East Lansing · 2nd Round
Aug 13
Jesse Flores
M25 East Lansing · 1st Round
Aug 12
Kenta Miyoshi
Granby challenger
Jul 13
Matt Kuhar
Granby challenger
Jul 12
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 34–65 matches
| Metric | Nefve | Poling |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 52% |
| Sets won | 46% | 51% |
| Games won | 49% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nefve | Poling |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M25 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nefve | Poling |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.