August Holmgren vs Luca NardiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
August Holmgren and Luca Nardi have met 2 times since 2023; Luca Nardi leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Kobe Challenger in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Nardi leads 2–0. Nardi has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Holmgren has taken 1 sets to Nardi's 4. Their most recent meeting: Luca Nardi won at Helsinki Challenger (2024).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Olbia Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 13 · 5:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 2.31 or longer, Luca Nardi has won 15 of 56 (27%). The price implied 34%, so Luca Nardi has fallen 7 points short of it.
At 1.56 or shorter, August Holmgren has won 39 of 51 (76%). The price implied 67%, so August Holmgren has beaten it by 9 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
August Holmgren meets Luca Nardi in the first round of the Olbia Challenger on October 13, a hard court event that pits two mid-ranking players seeking momentum. Holmgren holds the 236th ranking and Nardi sits at 251st. Both arrive off difficult stretches; Holmgren has dropped his last two matches, while Nardi carries a four-match losing streak into the competition.
Nardi leads their head-to-head record 2-0 against Holmgren in two previous meetings. Recent form tells a starker story: Holmgren won 2 of his last 5 matches and 3 of 10, while Nardi has won just 1 of 5 and 3 of 10. Their shared opponents over recent weeks favor Holmgren noticeably; he defeated Alexis Galarneau, Andrea Guerrieri, and Otto Virtanen while Nardi lost to all three. On hard courts in a recent sample, Holmgren stands at 10-10 against Nardi's 8-12 mark.
Holmgren relies heavily on his serve to dictate points, a weapon that becomes more potent on hard surfaces. Nardi plays as a frontrunner who thrives with momentum and court position. The question facing Holmgren is whether his serve can establish enough first-set control to avoid extended rallies; for Nardi, breaking through early is essential, as trailing will force him to chase from positions where his style is less effective.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Holmgren | Nardi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | August Holmgren | Luca Nardi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 20/29 | 76% | 13/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 45% | 15/33 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 39% | 24/62 | 45% | 17/38 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 36% | 10/28 | 48% | 10/21 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 17/30 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 64% | 18/28 | 35% | 8/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 26/32 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 20/32 | 65% | 13/20 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Holmgren 0, Nardi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Holmgren
🤖 Servebot
Nardi
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,115 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward August Holmgren.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Nov 7, 2024
Helsinki Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Nov 16, 2023
Kobe Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Holmgren | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–8 | 0–1 |
| Avg odds | 1.90 | 2.58 |
| ROI % | -22.6% | -100.0% |
| Units P/L | -2.94u | -1.00u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Holmgren | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 3 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | POR | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Holmgren has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Nardi's 25%).
| Opponent | Holmgren | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Andrea Guerrieri | W 75 61 | L 36 67 |
| Aleksandar Vukic | L 46 63 36 | L 76 36 26 |
| Jerome Kym | L 46 36 | W 64 76 |
| Otto Virtanen | W 76 62 | L 46 46 |
| Remy Bertola | L 67 67 | L 63 67 67 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | W 60 76 | W 63 60 |
| Alexis Galarneau | W 64 63 | L 46 16 |
| Chris Rodesch | L 36 26 | L 67 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Pedro Martinez
Villena Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Henrique Rocha
Porto Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Andrea Guerrieri
Porto Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Benjamin Bonzi
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 28
Vadym Ursu
Istanbul Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Felix Balshaw
Manacor Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 1
Andrea Guerrieri
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Braden Shick
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 29
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Villena Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 5
Federico Cina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Andrea Guerrieri
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 11
Otto Virtanen
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 24
Rio Noguchi
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Remy Bertola
Nottingham 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 15
Giles Hussey
Lexus Nottingham Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 14
Oscar Weightman
Lexus Nottingham Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 13
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–62 matches
| Metric | Holmgren | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 47% | 44% |
| Sets won | 49% | 49% |
| Games won | 50% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Holmgren | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Holmgren | Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |