Head-to-Head

Alexander Donski vs Luca NardiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇧🇬Alexander Donski

#519 · 28 yrs · R

6Lost 6 straight

0–0

First meeting

🇮🇹Luca Nardi

#239 · 23 yrs · R

3wBack after 3w off

Upcoming match

Tournament: Orleans Challenger
Level: ATP Challenger Tour
Round: 1st Round Qualifying
Surface: Hard
Date & time: November 8 · 11:00 AM ET

Book odds

Luca Nardi1.121.13

Alexander Donski5.105.00

Set spread

Nardi -1.51.49

Donski +1.52.41

Game spread

Nardi -4.51.71

Donski +4.52.02

NardiHard-court specialist (69%)DonskiClay-court specialist (58%)

Record at prices like this

Luca Nardi1.13implies 87%won 90%+3 pts

At 1.13 or shorter, Luca Nardi has won 9 of 10 (90%). The price implied 87%, so Luca Nardi has beaten it by 3 points.

Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.

Alexander Donski and Luca Nardi meet next at the Orleans Challenger on November 8 on hard.

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Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	Donski	Nardi
Indicator	Alexander Donski		Luca Nardi
Wins in straight sets	67%	18/27	72%	13/18
Wins a set when losing	52%	12/23	63%	12/19
Goes to a deciding set	42%	21/50	46%	17/37
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	62%	8/13	50%	9/18
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	74%	20/27	67%	12/18
Tiebreak sets won	52%	13/25	36%	8/22
Wins after taking set 1	88%	22/25	65%	13/20
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	72%	18/25	65%	13/20

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Donski

🤖 Servebot

High ace rateDominant serviceWeaker returnBig first serve

Nardi

🏹 Frontrunner

Fast startsAggressive openersMomentum-drivenStrong holds

Matchup analysis

The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 53% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 987 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alexander Donski.

Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.

Previous meetings

First career meeting

Donski and Nardi have never faced each other on tour.

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Donski	Nardi
Outcome	Alexander Donski		Luca Nardi
1 or more	100%	4/4	100%	6/6
3 or more	100%	4/4	67%	4/6
5 or more	100%	4/4	17%	1/6
10 or more	75%	3/4	0%	0/6
15 or more	0%	0/4	0%	0/6
20 or more	0%	0/4	0%	0/6

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Donski	Nardi
W-L	0–5	3–2
Avg odds	2.40	2.11
ROI %	-100.0%	+3.8%
Units P/L	-5.00u	+0.19u

Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Across 1 shared opponent, both Donski and Nardi posted a 0% win rate.

Opponent	Donski	Nardi
Andrea Guerrieri	L 46 61 16	L 36 67

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Donski

LLLLLLWW

Omar Jasika

Taipei Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying

6⁴7

Nov 1

Yunseong Chung

Seoul Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying

Oct 25

Georgii Kravchenko

Olbia Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying

Oct 11

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying

Sep 27

Andrea Guerrieri

Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying

Aug 17

Daniil Glinka

Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · Quarterfinals

6⁴7

Aug 7

Alejandro Moro Canas

Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · 2nd Round

76⁵

Aug 5

Takuya Kumasaka

Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · 1st Round

Aug 4

Nardi

LWWWLLLL

Jacob Fearnley

Olbia Challenger · Semifinals

Oct 17

Michael Mmoh

Olbia Challenger · Quarterfinals

Oct 16

Lorenzo Carboni

Olbia Challenger · 2nd Round

Oct 14

August Holmgren

Olbia Challenger · 1st Round

Oct 13

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Villena Challenger · 1st Round

6⁵7

Oct 5

Federico Cina

U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying

Aug 25

Andrea Guerrieri

Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round Qualifying

6⁵7

Jul 11

Otto Virtanen

Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round Qualifying

Jun 24

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 38–50 matches

Metric	Donski	Nardi
Matches won	54%	47%
Sets won	55%	52%
Games won	51%	50%