Alexander Donski vs Andrea GuerrieriPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexander Donski and Andrea Guerrieri have met 2 times since 2025; Andrea Guerrieri leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Bergamo Challenger in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Guerrieri leads 2–0. Guerrieri has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Donski has taken 1 sets to Guerrieri's 4. Their most recent meeting: Andrea Guerrieri won at Quebec City Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Donski | Guerrieri | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexander Donski | Andrea Guerrieri | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 18/27 | 65% | 40/62 |
| Wins a set when losing | 52% | 11/21 | 20% | 5/25 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 42% | 20/48 | 31% | 27/87 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 67% | 8/12 | 52% | 26/50 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 73% | 19/26 | 71% | 22/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 13/24 | 47% | 14/30 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 22/24 | 98% | 49/50 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 75% | 18/24 | 80% | 40/50 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Donski 0, Guerrieri 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Donski
🤖 Servebot
Guerrieri
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alexander Donski.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Aug 17, 2026
Quebec City Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Nov 20, 2025
Bergamo Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Donski | Guerrieri | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexander Donski | Andrea Guerrieri | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 46% | 6/13 |
| 5 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 23% | 3/13 |
| 10 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Donski | Guerrieri |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–4 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.61 | 2.51 |
| ROI % | +28.0% | +21.4% |
| Units P/L | +2.24u | +3.00u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Donski | Guerrieri |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 793 mi · 1,276 km |
| Route | POR | FRA → POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Guerrieri has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Donski's 71%).
| Opponent | Donski | Guerrieri |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Glinka | L 67 46 | W 06 63 64 |
| Marko Topo | W 64 61 | W 64 64 |
| Alexey Vatutin | W 62 63 | W 62 64 |
| Samuele Pieri | W 76 64 | W 75 63 |
| Alex Martinez | L 26 67 | W 36 76 63 |
| Louis Wessels | W 76 60 | W 64 62 |
| Federico Arnaboldi | W 63 36 64 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Georgii Kravchenko
Olbia Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Alejo Sanchez Quilez
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 27
Andrea Guerrieri
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 17
Daniil Glinka
Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 7
Alejandro Moro Canas
Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Takuya Kumasaka
Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 4
Nitin Kumar Sinha
Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 3
Kenny De Schepper
Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 2
August Holmgren
Porto Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Anton Matusevich
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Jesper de Jong
St. Tropez Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Francesco Maestrelli
St. Tropez Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 21
Alex de Minaur
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Aziz Dougaz
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 27
Joel Schwaerzler
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
August Holmgren
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–88 matches
| Metric | Donski | Guerrieri |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 70% |
| Sets won | 56% | 63% |
| Games won | 51% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Donski | Guerrieri |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Donski | Guerrieri |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
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