Head-to-Head

Alex Barrena vs Gilles Arnaud BaillyPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇦🇷Alex Barrena

#233 · 23 yrs · R

0–0

First meeting

🇧🇪Gilles Arnaud Bailly

#240 · 20 yrs · R

Upcoming match

Tournament: Porto Challenger
Level: ATP Challenger Tour
Round: 1st Round
Surface: Clay
Date & time: August 31 · 5:00 AM ET

Book odds

Gilles Arnaud Bailly1.75

Alex Barrena2.01

Set spread

Arnaud Bailly -1.52.66

Barrena +1.51.41

Game spread

Arnaud Bailly -11.82

Barrena +11.84

Arnaud BaillyClay-court specialist (66%)BarrenaClay-court specialist (98%)

Record at prices like this

Gilles Arnaud Bailly1.7553% fairWon 44%

Priced around 1.75 or shorter, Gilles Arnaud Bailly has won 8 of 18 matches, 44% against a fair-price expectation of 60%.

Alex Barrena2.0147% fairWon 45%

Priced around 2.01 or longer, Alex Barrena has won 20 of 44 matches, 45% against a fair-price expectation of 39%.

Book prices only, with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Sample sizes below ten are not shown.

Alex Barrena and Gilles Arnaud Bailly meet next at the Porto Challenger on August 31 on clay.

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Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	Barrena	Arnaud Bailly
Indicator	Alex Barrena		Gilles Arnaud Bailly
Wins in straight sets	64%	18/28	74%	28/38
Wins a set when losing	29%	9/31	47%	14/30
Goes to a deciding set	32%	19/59	35%	24/68
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	56%	14/25	38%	10/26
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	52%	13/25	89%	8/9
Tiebreak sets won	40%	8/20	75%	9/12
Wins after taking set 1	91%	21/23	81%	34/42
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	78%	18/23	67%	28/42

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Barrena

🛡️ The Spoiler

Strong court coverageStrong retrievalDefensive consistencyBeats elite opponents

Bailly

⚔️ The Gladiator

Physical intensityBalanced gameStrong in deciding setsCompetitive fighter

Matchup analysis

The ⚔️ The Gladiator archetype wins about 54% vs 🛡️ The Spoiler across 288 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Gilles Arnaud Bailly.

The Gladiator players often use physical intensity and balanced game to pressure the the spoiler's strong court coverage.

Previous meetings

First career meeting

Barrena and Bailly have never faced each other on tour.

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Barrena	Bailly
Outcome	Alex Barrena		Gilles Arnaud Bailly
1 or more	69%	11/16	53%	9/17
3 or more	19%	3/16	12%	2/17
5 or more	0%	0/16	0%	0/17
10 or more	0%	0/16	0%	0/17
15 or more	0%	0/16	0%	0/17
20 or more	0%	0/16	0%	0/17

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Barrena	Bailly
W-L	7–10	3–8
Avg odds	2.38	1.50
ROI %	-20.8%	-66.0%
Units P/L	-3.53u	-7.26u

Travel

Last 30 days

Metric	Barrena	Bailly
Countries	2	2
Events	2	2
Matches	5	4
Distance	636 mi · 1,024 km	—
Route	GER → ITA	BEL → CZE

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Across 2 shared opponents, both Barrena and Bailly posted a 0% win rate.

Opponent	Barrena	Bailly
Henri Squire	L 46 16	L 36 63 46
Carlo Alberto Caniato	L 67 67	L 57 26

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Barrena

LWWLWLWL

Maxim Mrva

Todi Challenger · Semifinals

Aug 15

Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi

Todi Challenger · 2nd Round

Aug 13

Georgii Kravchenko

Todi Challenger · 1st Round

Aug 11

Henri Squire

Hagen Challenger · 2nd Round

Aug 5

Timofey Skatov

Hagen Challenger · 1st Round

76⁴

Aug 3

Jan Choinski

Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round

Jul 29

Johan Nikles

Bonn Challenger · 1st Round

Jul 28

Niels Visker

Tampere Challenger · 1st Round

Jul 21

Bailly

LLWWWLLW

Norbert Gombos

Prague Challenger · 1st Round

Aug 18

Raphael Perot

M25 Koksijde · Semifinals

Aug 15

Fadi Bidan

M25 Koksijde · Quarterfinals

Aug 14

Mac Visser

M25 Koksijde · 2nd Round

Aug 13

Zaccharie Cado

M25 Koksijde · 1st Round

Aug 11

Samuele Pieri

Bonn Challenger · 1st Round

Jul 28

Hynek Barton

Tampere Challenger · 2nd Round

Jul 22

Daniel Elahi Galan