Adrian Mannarino vs Toby SamuelPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm
- Level
- ATP 250
- Round
- 3rd Round Qualifying
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- November 8 · 8:10 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.95 or longer, Adrian Mannarino has won 53 of 126 (42%). That is level with the 41% the price implied.
At 1.82 or shorter, Toby Samuel has won 24 of 37 (65%). The price implied 60%, so Toby Samuel has beaten it by 5 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Adrian Mannarino and Toby Samuel meet in the 3rd Round Qualifying at the BNP Paribas Nordic Open in Stockholm on November 8 on hard court. Mannarino, ranked 59th, arrives after a quick turnaround with one day of rest following six matches in two weeks. Samuel, ranked 97th, comes in on similar rest with five matches in the same span, both players carrying one-match winning streaks into qualifying.
The two have never faced each other. Their mixed results against common opponents offer little clarity. Mannarino defeated Jakub Mensik while falling to Billy Harris and Arthur Fery; Samuel beat Harris and Mensik but lost to Fery. Mannarino has won 7 of his last 10 on hard court, while Samuel has won 5 of 10, though both sit at 3-2 over their last five matches.
Mannarino operates from the baseline with heavy forehands and controlled aggression, posting a 65% win rate on hard surfaces in recent play. Samuel counters with reactive ball striking, reading opponents rather than dictating, and carries a 60% hard court record. Mannarino must sustain his baseline rhythm and dictate points; Samuel must use anticipation and court positioning to disrupt that offense.
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mannarino | Samuel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Adrian Mannarino | Toby Samuel | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 13/25 | 81% | 46/57 |
| Wins a set when losing | 29% | 9/31 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 21/56 | 25% | 19/76 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 41% | 7/17 | 63% | 38/60 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 54% | 21/39 | 73% | 8/11 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 56% | 14/25 | 71% | 17/24 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 19/23 | 91% | 49/54 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 57% | 13/23 | 85% | 46/54 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mannarino
🎯 Baseliner
Samuel
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,063 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Adrian Mannarino.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Mannarino and Samuel have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mannarino | Samuel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Adrian Mannarino | Toby Samuel | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 24/24 | 100% | 14/14 |
| 3 or more | 79% | 19/24 | 100% | 14/14 |
| 5 or more | 46% | 11/24 | 50% | 7/14 |
| 10 or more | 8% | 2/24 | 14% | 2/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/24 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–10 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.54 | 1.58 |
| ROI % | +37.5% | -26.9% |
| Units P/L | +8.62u | -3.76u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 5 | 2 |
| Events | 5 | 2 |
| Matches | 12 | 2 |
| Distance | 7,019 mi · 11,296 km | 795 mi · 1,280 km |
| Route | CHN → KAZ → AUT → FRA → SWE | BEL → SWE |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Samuel has a higher win rate against shared opponents (44% vs Mannarino's 33%).
| Opponent | Mannarino | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Mensik | W 64 75 | L 75 36 36 63 67 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | W 64 76 | W 61 76 |
| Zizou Bergs | L 46 36 | L 36 67 |
| Matisse Bobichon | L 36 57 | W 63 62 |
| Billy Harris | L 46 76 46 | W 46 61 64 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 36 26 26 | L 46 46 26 |
| Arthur Fery | L 67 46 | L 06 26 |
| Martin Damm | W 16 63 64 | W 76 62 |
| Daniel Merida | L 64 26 26 | L 67 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jan Simonsson
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · 1st Round Qualifying
Nov 7
Nuno Borges
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 31
Daniil Medvedev
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · Quarterfinals
Oct 30
Jakub Mensik
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 2nd Round
Oct 28
Ignacio Buse
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 1st Round
Oct 27
Alex Molcan
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 25
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Erste Bank Open - Vienna · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 24
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Almaty Open - Almaty · Quarterfinals
Oct 23
Karl Friberg
BNP Paribas Nordic Open - Stockholm · 1st Round Qualifying
Nov 7
Jurij Rodionov
Bratislava 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Nov 5
Lukas Pokorny
Bratislava 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Nov 4
Clement Tabur
Brest Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 29
Inaki Montes-De La Torre
Brest Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 28
Zizou Bergs
European Open - Brussels · 1st Round
Oct 20
Hynek Barton
Villena Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Jerome Kym
Porto Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 62–80 matches
| Metric | Mannarino | Samuel |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 73% |
| Sets won | 42% | 69% |
| Games won | 47% | 57% |