Adrian Mannarino vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Adrian Mannarino and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 3 times since 2018; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Barcelona in 2018 on clay. On hard courts Busta leads 2–0. Busta has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Mannarino has taken 2 sets to Busta's 6. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at China Open - Beijing (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mannarino | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Adrian Mannarino | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 9/18 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 8/30 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 35% | 17/48 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 43% | 6/14 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 16/34 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 12/24 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 13/16 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 56% | 9/16 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mannarino 0, Carreno Busta 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mannarino
💥 Big Hitter
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 1,017 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 29, 2026
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 3rd Round Qualifying
Feb 10, 2020
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam
H Hard · 1st Round
Apr 16, 2018
Barcelona
C Clay · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mannarino | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Adrian Mannarino | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 71% | 12/17 | 54% | 7/13 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 23% | 3/13 |
| 10 or more | 6% | 1/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–9 | 6–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.71 | 2.41 |
| ROI % | +20.8% | -16.8% |
| Units P/L | +3.32u | -2.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 4 | 2 |
| Matches | 10 | 6 |
| Distance | 6,939 mi · 11,168 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | FRA → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Mannarino and Busta posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Mannarino | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 36 67 | L 36 64 16 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 64 64 | W 46 76 64 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 76 36 76 | W 46 63 76 |
| Denis Shapovalov | L 76 36 26 | W 63 76 |
| Thiago Agustin Tirante | W 46 36 63 63 63 | W 76 75 36 64 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 57 76 76 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Martin Damm | W 16 63 64 | W 63 63 |
| Pedro Martinez | W 76 61 | L |
| Billy Harris | L 46 76 46 | W 75 63 |
| Matteo Berrettini | L 64 57 57 | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Karen Khachanov
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Flavio Cobolli
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Miomir Kecmanovic
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Denis Shapovalov
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Alejandro Tabilo
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Juncheng Shang
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 54–58 matches
| Metric | Mannarino | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 37% | 62% |
| Sets won | 38% | 58% |
| Games won | 46% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mannarino | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mannarino | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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