Adrian Mannarino vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Adrian Mannarino and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 2 times since 2018; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Barcelona in 2018 on clay. Busta has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Mannarino has taken 2 sets to Busta's 4. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam (2020).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mannarino | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Adrian Mannarino | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 59% | 10/17 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 28% | 8/29 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 15/46 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 7/14 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 44% | 14/32 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 38% | 9/24 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 80% | 12/15 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 10/15 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mannarino 0, Carreno Busta 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mannarino
🎯 Baseliner
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 57% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 247 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Adrian Mannarino.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Feb 10, 2020
ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament - Rotterdam
H Hard · 1st Round
Apr 16, 2018
Barcelona
C Clay · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mannarino | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Adrian Mannarino | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 14/16 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 56% | 9/16 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 31% | 5/16 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 6% | 1/16 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–9 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.58 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -2.3% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | -0.37u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mannarino | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Busta has a higher win rate against shared opponents (71% vs Mannarino's 43%).
| Opponent | Mannarino | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Denis Shapovalov | L 16 46 | W 63 76 |
| Jakub Mensik | W 57 76 76 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 67 46 62 26 | W 63 76 63 |
| Martin Damm | W 16 63 64 | W 63 63 |
| Pedro Martinez | W 76 61 | W 64 46 64 |
| Billy Harris | L 46 76 46 | W 75 63 |
| Matteo Berrettini | L 64 57 57 | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Lorenzo Sonego
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Denis Shapovalov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Jacob Fearnley
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Learner Tien
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Alexis Galarneau
Newport Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 9
Remy Bertola
Newport Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 8
Alex de Minaur
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–65 matches
| Metric | Mannarino | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 35% | 65% |
| Sets won | 37% | 60% |
| Games won | 47% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mannarino | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mannarino | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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