The Biggest Ranking–Elo Gaps on Our Surface Boards

Holger Rune is ranked 433rd in the world. On clay, our Elo board has him 11th. That 422-place gap is the widest among the men on our November surface boards, which publish 20 active players per surface.

"Underrated" usually bends to whoever is making the argument. We pin it to one number instead. Subtract a player's position on our published surface Elo board from their official ATP or WTA rank. A large positive gap means the points table and the Elo model disagree. Elo updates after wins and losses, accounting for opponent quality; the official ranking counts tournament points over a rolling year. The gap alone cannot tell us which measure better describes a player's current level.

The most underrated men right now

These are six of the largest rank-minus-Elo gaps among players on our published ATP surface boards this month. The Elo figure is each player's rating on the surface where his gap runs widest.

Rune sits a long way clear of the other published board entries. The ranking files him 433rd while his clay Elo of 2190 is 11th on that surface, a 422-place difference between the two measures. Draper is the next name down, 157th on the list but 13th on hard at 2223, a 144-place gap. Dimitrov follows, 134th in the world and 11th on grass at 1738 for a gap of 123. Rune's case is the one you can read straight off the clay board.

Rune shares the published clay board with Carlos Alcaraz at 2486 and Jannik Sinner at 2433. His 2190 rating reflects surface match results rather than the points beside his name in the official ranking.

The most underrated women right now

Among the published WTA board entries, the largest gaps run wider still.

Marketa Vondrousova has the largest gap in this snapshot. She is ranked 661st, yet her grass Elo of 1709 puts her 13th on that surface, a gap of 648 places. The two measures differ sharply for her, but the gap does not explain why. Alisa Oktiabreva is ranked 274th and 8th on clay at 2086, a 266-place gap. Solana Sierra closes the board at a smaller scale, 104th in the world and 20th on clay at 2010, an 84-place gap.

Why the gaps open up

Ranking points fall off after a year, while Elo changes after both wins and losses. A missed stretch or a change in opposition can move the two measures differently. The November snapshot shows where they disagree; it does not establish why any one player's gap opened.

You can read the same effect the other way on the full ATP rankings page, where live Elo sits beside official points, and it feeds the calls on today's predictions. For the method underneath all of it, see how Elo differs from the ATP ranking.

A wide gap marks a disagreement between two measures. It is a reason to inspect the player's results, not proof that either measure is wrong.

Where this misleads

The gap is a place to start looking, not a verdict. A short run of wins over soft opposition can prop up an Elo rating that real competition will knock straight back down. Grass ratings sit on a lower scale than hard or clay, so a grass gap and a clay gap are not reading off the same ruler. And none of it speaks to form this week, a rough stylistic matchup, or legs with too many miles on them. Treat a name near the top of these boards as a reason to open a player profile, not as the last word on the next match.

The two tables above are fixed to the 2026-11-03 snapshot. The embedded clay leaderboard can change as site data updates; the ATP and WTA ranking pages show the latest published Elo and official points.