The Most Overrated and Underrated WTA Players, by the Numbers
Most "underrated player" lists come down to opinion. We built one from the data instead.
Every player has an Elo rating, a number that tracks how strong she really is based on who she has beaten and how surprising those wins were. Rank the whole tour by Elo, line it up against the official WTA ranking, and the places where the two numbers disagree are exactly where the ranking has a player wrong.
We keep this page current and update the figures as the model moves. Looking for the men's tour? Here are the most overrated and underrated ATP players.
How we rank overrated and underrated players
Sort the tour by overall Elo, give every player an Elo rank, then subtract that from her official rank. A player ranked 100th in the world but 40th by Elo has a gap of plus 60, which makes her underrated. Turn it around and a player ranked 50th but 150th by Elo is overrated by 100 places.
We kept the list to the official top 150 and required at least 20 rated matches, so one hot week cannot fake a rating. If the idea is new to you, start with Elo vs ATP ranking: what the official points miss.
The most underrated WTA players right now
| Player | Official rank | Elo rank | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Pliskova | 130 | 24 | +106 |
| Paula Badosa | 103 | 35 | +68 |
| Bianca Andreescu | 137 | 74 | +63 |
| Taylor Townsend | 96 | 34 | +62 |
| Peyton Stearns | 92 | 41 | +51 |
| Donna Vekic | 104 | 59 | +45 |
| Ashlyn Krueger | 108 | 63 | +45 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | 53 | 20 | +33 |
The standout is a former world number one. Karolina Pliskova is ranked 130th, but Elo still rates her inside the top 25, a gap of more than 100 places. She is not alone up there. A Grand Slam champion in Barbora Krejcikova sits 53rd with a top-20 Elo, and former top-ten players Paula Badosa and Bianca Andreescu show the same split.
The reason is almost always time off. The WTA ranking is a rolling 52-week total, so a few months out with injury wipes last year's points even though you never lost a match to deserve it. Elo holds steady because it only reacts to results, so a returning player keeps the level she left with. The gap is really a measure of weeks missed, which is why comeback players fill this list. They make for brutal early-round draws: strong enough to win, seeded low enough to lurk in qualifying.
The most overrated WTA players
| Player | Official rank | Elo rank | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elsa Jacquemot | 64 | 195 | −131 |
| Tatjana Maria | 52 | 180 | −128 |
| Moyuka Uchijima | 110 | 219 | −109 |
| Mayar Sherif | 102 | 203 | −101 |
| Leolia Jeanjean | 124 | 217 | −93 |
| Julia Grabher | 123 | 213 | −90 |
Tatjana Maria is the familiar name here. She is ranked 52nd, but Elo puts her outside the top 150. That is less an insult than a flag. A ranking can stay high on points the model treats as soft, whether they were earned a while ago or won at WTA 125 and ITF events against weaker fields. The bigger gaps below her come from that kind of lower-tier run, where the points are real but the opposition is not what Elo sees at tour level.
In short, the ranking says they belong, and the model wants to see it against stronger fields.
What the gaps don't tell you
Elo measures results, not fitness. A player on the way back can hold a rating her body has not matched yet, and a player with few matches can post a number that is mostly small-sample noise, which is why we required at least 20. This is also an all-surface view, so a player underrated on hard courts may look different on clay.
Use both lists as a watchlist, not a verdict. The live version updates after every match on the WTA rankings page, and the matchups it points to land in today's predictions.