The Most Overrated and Underrated ATP Players, by the Numbers
Most "underrated player" lists come down to opinion. We built one from the data instead.
The idea is simple. Every player has an Elo rating, a number that tracks how strong they actually are based on who they have beaten and how surprising those wins were. Rank the whole tour by Elo, line it up against the official ATP ranking, and the places where the two numbers disagree are exactly where the ranking has a player wrong.
We keep this page current and update the figures as the model moves. Looking for the women's tour? Here are the most overrated and underrated WTA players.
How we rank overrated and underrated players
Sort the tour by overall Elo, give every player an Elo rank, then subtract that from their official rank. A player who sits 100th in the world but 40th by Elo has a gap of plus 60, which makes him underrated. Turn it around and a player ranked 50th but 150th by Elo is overrated by 100 places.
We kept the list to the official top 150 and required at least 20 rated matches, so one hot week cannot fake a rating. If the idea is new to you, start with Elo vs ATP ranking: what the official points miss.
The most underrated ATP players right now
| Player | Official rank | Elo rank | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Thompson | 149 | 50 | +99 |
| Jack Draper | 75 | 6 | +69 |
| Matteo Berrettini | 105 | 42 | +63 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | 99 | 41 | +58 |
| Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 122 | 77 | +45 |
| Dino Prizmic | 72 | 29 | +43 |
| Raphael Collignon | 62 | 27 | +35 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 104 | 70 | +34 |
Jack Draper is the clearest case. He sits 75th in the rankings, but his Elo puts him in the top six. That is not a player performing at 75th best in the world. He is ranked there because ranking points expire, and he has spent too long off the court to defend them.
The rest of the list tells the same story. Draper, Berrettini, Hurkacz and Jordan Thompson have all lost long stretches of a season to injury. The ATP ranking is a rolling 52-week total, so when you miss three months, last year's points fall off even though you never lost a match to earn that drop. Elo works the other way. It only changes when you actually win or lose, so a returning player keeps the rating his results earned. The gap between his two numbers is really a measure of time away from the tour.
That makes these players dangerous early-round draws. They are good enough to beat seeds and ranked low enough to land in qualifying or the opening rounds.
Dino Prizmic is the odd one out. He is young and climbing faster than the points table can keep up, so his gap comes from momentum rather than missed time.
The most overrated ATP players
| Player | Official rank | Elo rank | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Mannarino | 45 | 154 | −109 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | 67 | 175 | −108 |
| Billy Harris | 150 | 341 | −191 |
| Dane Sweeny | 131 | 312 | −181 |
| Moez Echargui | 139 | 317 | −178 |
| Francesco Maestrelli | 128 | 271 | −143 |
Adrian Mannarino is the name most fans will know. He is ranked 45th, but Elo has him outside the top 150. That is not a knock on him. It usually means a ranking is propped up by points the model treats as soft: results banked months ago, or wins at smaller events against players Elo does not rate highly. The wider gaps below him, like Billy Harris and Dane Sweeny, come from the same place. They climbed through the Challenger circuit, where the points are real but the fields are weaker than the main tour.
Read these as players the ranking already rewards and the model wants to see deliver at the top level first.
What the gaps don't tell you
Elo tracks results, not health. A player coming back from injury can carry a rating his body has not caught up to yet. A young player with only a handful of matches can post a number that is mostly small-sample noise, which is why we set the 20-match floor. And this is an all-surface view, so someone underrated on hard courts might look very different on clay.
Treat both lists as a watchlist, not a verdict. The live version refreshes after every match on the ATP rankings page, and the matchups it flags show up in today's predictions.