The Most Overrated and Underrated ATP Players, by the Numbers

Most "underrated player" lists are arguments dressed up as rankings. We built this one from the data.

Every player has an Elo rating, a number that tracks how strong they actually are based on who they have beaten and how surprising those wins were. Rank the tour by Elo, line it up against the official ATP ranking, and the mismatches are where the points table looks wrong.

We keep this page current and update the figures as the model moves. Looking for the women's tour? Here are the most overrated and underrated WTA players.

How we rank overrated and underrated players

Sort the tour by overall Elo, give every player an Elo rank, then subtract that from their official rank. A player who sits 100th in the world but 40th by Elo has a gap of plus 60, which makes him underrated. Flip it: ranked 50th but 150th by Elo means overrated by 100 places.

We kept the list to the official top 150 and required at least 20 rated matches, so one hot week cannot fake a rating. Elo ranks are computed within the official top 400, which keeps the scale steady as our database grows. If the idea is new to you, start with Elo vs ATP ranking: what the official points miss.

The most underrated ATP players right now

Jack Draper is still the headline, and the gap has only widened since June. He sits 131st in the rankings while Elo still has him in the top six. That is not someone playing like the 131st-best player in the world. He is there because ranking points expire, and he has been off court too long to defend them.

Most of the rest fit the injury story. Roman Safiullin, Grigor Dimitrov, and Hurkacz all lost long chunks of a season. Holger Rune is the newer name on the list: 77th in the points table while Elo keeps him inside the top 20. The ATP ranking is a rolling 52-week total, so when you miss three months, last year's points fall off even though you did not lose your way down the list. Elo only moves when you actually play. A returning player keeps the rating their results earned, and the gap between the two numbers is mostly time away from the tour.

That makes these players rough early-round draws. They are good enough to beat seeds and ranked low enough to land in qualifying or round one.

Dino Prizmic is the exception. He is young and climbing faster than the points table can track, so his gap comes from momentum, not missed time.

The most overrated ATP players

Aleksandar Kovacevic is probably the name fans recognize. He is ranked 70th, but Elo has him outside the top 170. That is not a personal knock. It usually means the ranking is propped up by points the model treats as soft: results banked months ago, or wins at smaller events against opponents Elo does not rate highly. The wider gaps around him, from Francesco Maestrelli to Dane Sweeny, tend to come from the same place. They climbed through Challengers, where the points count but the fields are weaker than week-to-week tour level.

Think of these as players the ranking already pays and the model still wants to see prove it against stronger opposition.

What the gaps don't tell you

Elo tracks results, not health. A player coming back from injury can carry a rating their body has not caught up to yet. A young player with only a handful of matches can post a number that is mostly small-sample noise, which is why we set the 20-match floor. This is also an all-surface view, so someone underrated on hard courts might look very different on clay.

Treat both lists as a watchlist, not a verdict. The live version refreshes after every match on the ATP rankings page, and the matchups it flags show up in today's predictions.