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ATP Challenger Tour · Quarterfinals · Shymkent Challenger 1

Timofey SkatovvsDaniil Ostapenkov

April 20, 2026C Clay

Model Prediction

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Skatov	Ostapenkov
W-L	4–8	8–2
Avg odds	2.19	1.88
ROI %	-49.1%	+32.3%
Units P/L	-5.89u	+3.23u

Head-to-Head

First career meeting

Skatov and Ostapenkov have never faced each other on tour.

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Skatov		Ostapenkov
1 or more	75%	9/12	100%	10/10
3 or more	42%	5/12	90%	9/10
5 or more	42%	5/12	70%	7/10
10 or more	8%	1/12	20%	2/10
15 or more	0%	0/12	20%	2/10
20 or more	0%	0/12	0%	0/10

Mechanics

Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days

Stat	Skatov	Ostapenkov
Serve
1st Serve In %	61%	61.1%
1st Serve Pts Won %	68%	72.4%
2nd Serve Pts Won %	50.2%	57.7%
Aces / Match	3.7	7.2
Double Faults / Match	2.4	3.7
Break Points Saved %	65.3%	41.8%
Return
1st Return Pts Won %	30.5%	30.6%
2nd Return Pts Won %	52.6%	53.7%
BP Converted %	50.6%	50.1%
Rally
Winners / Match	17.9	20.9
Unforced Errors / Match	27.1	29.2
Net Pts Won %	66.4%	60.2%
Total Pts Won %	50.4%	52.8%
Surface (Clay)
Clay Win %	43%	100%

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Skatov

WWLLW

Svyatoslav Gulin

Shymkent Challenger 1 · Round of 16

Apr 22

Oleg Prihodko

Shymkent Challenger 1 · Round of 32

Apr 21

Luca Van Assche

Oeiras Open 3 · Round of 32

Apr 14

Hugo Gaston

Atkinsons Monza Open · Round of 16

7⁷6⁵

Apr 9

Norbert Gombos

Atkinsons Monza Open · Round of 32

Apr 7

Ostapenkov

WWWWL

Buvaysar Gadamauri

Shymkent Challenger 1 · Round of 16

Apr 22

Samuele Pieri

Shymkent Challenger 1 · Round of 32

7⁸6⁶

Apr 21

Giuseppe La Vela

Shymkent Challenger 1 · 2nd Round Qualifying

6⁵7⁷

7⁷6²

Apr 20

Maxim Shin

Shymkent Challenger 1 · 1st Round Qualifying

Apr 19

Sergey Fomin

WUNING OPEN 2 · Round of 32

Apr 15