ATP Challenger Tour · Semifinals · Champaign
Final score
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Opelka
🤖 Servebot
Paul
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 3,362 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Reilly Opelka here.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency. On Hard, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Opelka | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 1–2 | 13–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.98 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | +20.0% | -2.2% |
| Units P/L | +0.60u | -0.39u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 3 career meetings
1
Opelka
2
Paul
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Opelka's 30%).
| Opponent | Opelka | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur | W 76 64 | W 26 63 63 |
| Ethan Quinn | L 57 67 | W 61 63 |
| Taylor Fritz | L 36 46 | W 64 63 |
| Zizou Bergs | L 16 46 | W 61 62 |
| Nuno Borges | W 67 62 76 | W 76 63 57 57 75 |
| Learner Tien | L 67 36 | W 46 64 63 |
| Corentin Moutet | L 63 57 16 | W 46 63 64 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 46 57 46 | L 67 46 57 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L 36 67 75 64 46 | W 61 61 |
| Tomas Machac | W 76 67 63 | L 62 36 36 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Opelka | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 68.2% | 64.6% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 86.8% | 67.7% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 58.6% | 50% |
| Aces / Match | 6.3 | 3.7 |
| Double Faults / Match | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Break Points Saved % | 0% | 40.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 21.1% | 32.9% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 49.8% | 47.8% |
| BP Converted % | 12.5% | 44% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 15.3 | 23.7 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 11 | 32.6 |
| Net Pts Won % | 85.9% | 75.1% |
| Total Pts Won % | 52.7% | 49.6% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 50% | 75% |
Last five matches per player
Federico Cina
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Ethan Quinn
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 8
Taylor Fritz
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 32
Mar 12
Jack Draper
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 64
Mar 8
Ben Shelton
BNP Paribas Open · Round of 64
Mar 6
Matchup overview
Reilly Opelka and Tommy Paul face off in the Semifinals at Champaign on Hard.
Reilly Opelka leads 1-2 over 3 previous meetings.
Reilly Opelka is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Federico Cina (May 26).
Tommy Paul is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Casper Ruud (May 29).
Share this match
