ATP Masters 1000 · Finals · ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Djokovic
💥 Big Hitter
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 694 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Novak Djokovic plays Carlos Alcaraz.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Djokovic | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–2 | 17–3 |
| Avg odds | 3.19 | 1.13 |
| ROI % | +117.8% | -8.0% |
| Units P/L | +5.89u | -1.59u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 9 career meetings
4
Djokovic
5
Alcaraz
Jan 31, 2026
Australian Open
H Hard · Final
Sep 4, 2025
US Open
H Hard · Semifinals
Jan 18, 2025
Australian Open
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jul 14, 2024
Wimbledon
G Grass · Finals
Nov 18, 2023
Nitto ATP Finals
H Hard · Semifinals
Aug 20, 2023
ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati
H Hard · Finals
Jul 16, 2023
Wimbledon
G Grass · Finals
Jun 8, 2023
Roland Garros
C Clay · Semifinals
May 7, 2022
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid
C Clay · Semifinals
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Djokovic's 70%).
| Opponent | Djokovic | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | W 36 63 46 64 64 | L 67 36 |
| Valentin Vacherot | L 36 46 | W 64 64 |
| Cameron Norrie | W 64 67 62 63 | W 63 64 |
| Jack Draper | L 64 46 67 | W 64 64 |
| Alexander Zverev | W 46 63 62 64 | W 64 76 67 67 75 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | L 46 36 31 | W 64 61 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 16 64 64 64 | W 75 62 61 |
| Corentin Moutet | W 63 62 76 | W 62 64 61 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | W 63 64 | W 76 63 62 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 63 75 36 64 | W 67 75 63 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Djokovic | Alcaraz |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 67.1% | 68.6% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 73% | 74.2% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 49% | 57.4% |
| Aces / Match | 8 | 5.1 |
| Double Faults / Match | 3.8 | 2.1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 63.6% | 59.8% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 27.6% | 36.5% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 48.8% | 56.4% |
| BP Converted % | 35.7% | 48.7% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 32.7 | 25.4 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 30 | 25 |
| Net Pts Won % | 71.2% | 71.9% |
| Total Pts Won % | 49.9% | 55.8% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 60% | 86% |
Last five matches per player
Otto Virtanen
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Jannik Sinner
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Final
Apr 12
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Semifinals
Apr 11
Alexander Bublik
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Quarterfinals
Apr 10
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 9
Matchup overview
Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz face off in the Finals at ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati on Hard.
Novak Djokovic leads 4-5 over 9 previous meetings.
Novak Djokovic is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Jack Draper (Mar 11).
Carlos Alcaraz is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Otto Virtanen (Apr 14).
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