Grand Slam · Round of 16 · Australian Open
Final score & match stats
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Rybakina
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Madison Keys and Elena Rybakina are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit. Across 7,560 matches in our dataset, the historical split is about even.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–1 | 2–2 |
| Avg odds | 3.04 | 5.51 |
| ROI % | +172.0% | +397.0% |
| Units P/L | +12.04u | +15.88u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 6 career meetings
3
Keys
3
Rybakina
Aug 7, 2025
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 16
Jan 13, 2025
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 16
Mar 18, 2024
Miami
H Hard · Round of 16
Oct 3, 2022
Ostrava
H Hard · Round of 32
Aug 15, 2022
Cincinnati
H Hard · Quarterfinals
May 23, 2022
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 32
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rybakina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Keys's 60%).
| Opponent | Keys | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Diana Shnaider | L | W 63 64 |
| Victoria Mboko | W | L 57 64 46 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva | W | L 63 16 67 |
| Karolina Pliskova | W 63 63 | W 60 62 |
| Qinwen Zheng | L 64 26 46 | W 46 64 63 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 60 63 | W 46 63 75 |
| Karolina Muchova | W 46 63 75 | W 75 61 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 36 46 | W 26 63 64 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 36 | L 46 36 |
| Ashlyn Krueger | W 61 75 | W 63 76 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Keys | Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 64.1% | 61.1% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 72.3% | 73% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 44.7% | 53.4% |
| Aces / Match | 4.6 | 6 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Break Points Saved % | 54% | 52.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 38.1% | 37% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 55.9% | 53.4% |
| BP Converted % | 50.2% | 49.9% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 0 | 0 |
| Net Pts Won % | 0% | 0% |
| Total Pts Won % | 53.1% | 54.5% |
| Surface (Hard) | ||
| Hard Win % | 50% | 80% |
Last five matches per player
Matchup overview
Madison Keys and Elena Rybakina face off in the Round of 16 at Australian Open on Hard.
Madison Keys leads 3-3 over 6 previous meetings.
Madison Keys is 4-1 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Diana Shnaider (Jun 1).
Elena Rybakina is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Yuliia Starodubtseva (May 27).
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